The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Bloom Energy's third beat-and-raise this year makes its selloff look driven by market fear rather than deteriorating business results. A similar sentiment-driven decline after strong results in July marked a bottom before the stock doubled; the setup looks similar now. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy alone can solve the electricity shortage for now. That warrants a high P/E, and its growth should be even stronger than the market expects. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy's demand may not become revenue when customers struggle to secure financing. Capital is difficult to raise in this climate; a reading of management's AI discussion also points to permitting, local opposition and customer credit as obstacles despite robust demand. Even after good earnings, the shares did not look very bullish. x.com x.comÂ
Bloom Energy is attractive because it is newly profitable and sales are doubling year over year; its stock is building a base-on-base recovery uptrend below the June all-time high. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy looks more appealing after beating earnings estimates by a wide margin while trading at about 55 times earnings near $200. The market paid $350 in June, but the company now earns far more than expected despite a 33% share-price drawdown. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy is probably already priced for perfection after running up like crazy, and it will likely keep trending down now that market sentiment has shifted. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy's repeated revenue and EBITDA beats suggest its pullback will give way to another run soon. It raised 2026 guidance for the third time. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $335 and says Bloom targets revenue growth well above 100%, with backlog growing faster than sales and a path to more than 5 GW of capacity. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy could look cheap if it hits its revenue targets amid exploding demand for on-site power. Revenue is projected at $4.5B in 2026 and $16B by 2029, implying 3.5x 2029 sales at a $56B market cap. It ranks alongside Forgent Power Solutions, perhaps better, as a buy at current levels. x.com x.comÂ
Bad macro conditions mean even Bloom Energy's strong growth is not enough for the stock right now. Wall St Engine reports Q3 revenue rose 138.1% year over year. x.comÂ
Bloom Energy, along with IREN and Nebius, was among the most attractive buys during the Citadel dip. All three were among the five best-performing stocks in the market, rebounding more than 35% from their bottoms in a single day. x.comÂ