McCormick's deal to roughly double its share count to buy Europe's slowest-growing food consumer packaged goods business looks like a poor move made after its compounder multiple had already disappeared. Volumes held up until 2022 before some mix of price elasticity and GLP-1 drugs hurt them, and management incentives tied to three-year cumulative net sales growth help explain chasing size. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Costco is worth adding even at an expensive valuation, while McCormick, though cheap, looks less attractive because of the Unilever food acquisition it is pursuing. x.com 

McCormick looks cheap against its earnings, at 8x trailing and 15x next year's versus the 18x packaged-food makers usually get. At 18x next year's $3.30 a share, give or take 12%, fair value is $52.21-$66.44 versus $48.20. The case leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 45% above trailing. A pullback zone sits at $36.25 and the stock would be expensive above $82.40. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

For a roughly 4% safe yield with accepted subpar price appreciation, Paychex is preferred over McCormick. McCormick dominates sourcing and private-labeling spices and pays a 3.7% dividend with 40 straight annual increases, but it is unlikely to beat the S&P 500 over 10-15 years with dividends taxed, and owning it could be regretted in a decade. It could still be a good trade over months to a couple of years. @LatticeInvestor adds that growth is sluggish and store brands threaten it. x.com  x.com