McCormick's deal to roughly double its share count to buy Europe's slowest-growing food consumer packaged goods business looks like a poor move made after its compounder multiple had already disappeared. Volumes held up until 2022 before some mix of price elasticity and GLP-1 drugs hurt them, and management incentives tied to three-year cumulative net sales growth help explain chasing size. x.com  x.com  x.com 

McCormick's Unilever deal, as structured, is no reason to buy the dip after the stock was hit on the news. x.com 

McCormick looks cheap against its earnings, at 8x trailing and 15x next year's versus the 18x packaged-food makers usually get. At 18x next year's $3.30 a share, give or take 12%, fair value is $52.21-$66.44 versus $48.20. The case leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 45% above trailing. A pullback zone sits at $36.25 and the stock would be expensive above $82.40. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Hormel Foods offers a dividend yield above 5% as a Dividend Aristocrat trading below 15x earnings, which could reward patient investors if growth rebounds. It is one of four high-yield picks chosen to avoid sucker yields, alongside VICI Properties, Ladder Capital and a global utility fund. x.com 

Nike's dividend will have to be cut unless earnings double in a quick turnaround, because earnings now run below the payout. As @valuemaverick1 notes, Nike has the cash to sustain the dividend, but it does not earn it, so it should not be hiking it; that shows the Dividend Aristocrat label is worthless and the dividend a manipulated signal. Long extremely mispriced, the stock is still adjusting to new realities. The only reason to own Nike would be improving free cash flow and earnings. x.com  … Show more

Quality dividend stocks look like a great place to be over the next few years as the crowded tech trade unwinds. Per @PeterBerezinBCA, in the early dotcom bust tech crashed while the rest of the market rose, so the hedge for stocks was other stocks. A quality dividend basket holds old-economy, cash-generative businesses at sane multiples, while the index hides 50% of its weight in names at 10 times sales. That outweighs a general dislike of dividends as inefficient, taxable compounding. x.com  … Show more

The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF's dividend growth is underrated and can make it a stronger income investment than high-yield funds. A 3.5% yield growing 8-10% a year could become far more powerful than an 8-10% yield ETF with no dividend growth. Income can beat inflation, and spending the dividend leaves no NAV erosion, so principal keeps growing. x.com  x.com 

McDonald's is getting more interesting for dividend investors: its dividend has compounded about 14% a year for 26 years since 2000. x.com