The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.comÂ
Enterprise data centers and AI racks are competing for limited parts, benefiting data-center OEMs, ODMs, CPU, memory and storage suppliers. Even a modest AI slowdown would not clear the shortages; customers will order ahead to secure allocation. Dell, HPE, Lenovo, Foxconn, Micron, SK hynix, Samsung, SanDisk, AMD and Intel are named beneficiaries. x.comÂ
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.comÂ
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
Dell's AI server business is growing on a trajectory that should appeal to anyone who likes Nvidia's, driven by a massive public and private AI factory buildout with a huge number of racks still to sell. Revenue rose 58% to $47B and infrastructure revenue 89% to $31.8B. AI server orders hit a record $60.9B in the quarter and $131.7B over four quarters, with AI backlog at $95B and the pipeline multiples of that. AI customers exceed 6,500, and traditional servers and networking grew 122%. x.com … Show more
Memory costs remain an unresolved risk for Dell even after a quarter that proved the pre-earnings bearish lean wrong. Gross margin rose to 20.9% from 17.8% and the October quarter was guided to $49.0bn, but AI server revenue grew just 1.7% while backlog jumped to $95bn, so a mix shift toward traditional servers and storage flattered margin. The $74bn full-year AI target needs about 26% sequential AI growth, so memory costs hit the October quarter on a richer AI mix, still unquantified. x.com … Show more
Dell is positioned at the forefront of a multi-hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity with one of the industry's most complete end-to-end offerings, from servers, storage and networking to enterprise software. AI server orders in its ISG infrastructure business are accelerating, partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have deepened, and global enterprise and government procurement has improved order visibility. Its long-term compounding potential could be substantial. x.comÂ
Dell should easily trade above $500 after a very strong Q2 FY27 report. Revenue rose about 58% to roughly $47B, AI server backlog hit a record of about $95B, FY27 revenue guidance rose by about $25B, and management now expects AI server revenue to triple this year rather than double. That the stock sat at morning lows after such results says a lot about the current state of the AI trade. x.com x.comÂ
Dell is a fair business at a fair price, but there are better uses of capital at this stage of the AI buildout. Value flows to whoever solves the hardest physics, the chips and memory, not the chassis; Dell's growth comes from repackaging NVIDIA hardware for a small margin, so its margin is set by others' scarcity. Its supply chain, lack of foundry or capex exposure, cheap valuation and shareholder-focused management make it the lower-risk AI infrastructure seat, with capped margins the price. … Show more
The AI hardware cycle is far from over because orders at NVIDIA, Broadcom and Dell are still accelerating and the industry is booked out to 2028; supply, not demand, is the constraint. NVIDIA's Q2 revenue rose 106% to $96.2B, and it expects about 70% growth in fiscal 2028 despite wafer, packaging, HBM and power limits. Broadcom guides AI chip revenue to $115B in 2027 and $230B in 2028, and Dell's AI server backlog is $95B. GPUs and custom ASICs are expanding together. x.comÂ