Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.comÂ
Frank Curzio
Founder & CEO of Curzio Research, Wall Street Unplugged Host
Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.comÂ
Dell is positioned at the forefront of a multi-hundred-billion-dollar AI infrastructure opportunity with one of the industry's most complete end-to-end offerings, from servers, storage and networking to enterprise software. AI server orders in its ISG infrastructure business are accelerating, partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom have deepened, and global enterprise and government procurement has improved order visibility. Its long-term compounding potential could be substantial. x.comÂ
Memory costs remain an unresolved risk for Dell even after a quarter that proved the pre-earnings bearish lean wrong. Gross margin rose to 20.9% from 17.8% and the October quarter was guided to $49.0bn, but AI server revenue grew just 1.7% while backlog jumped to $95bn, so a mix shift toward traditional servers and storage flattered margin. The $74bn full-year AI target needs about 26% sequential AI growth, so memory costs hit the October quarter on a richer AI mix, still unquantified. x.com … Show more
Dell Technologies is turning into one of the biggest AI infrastructure plays in the market, no longer just a PC company. It has massive AI server demand, NVIDIA partnerships and a record AI backlog, while governments race to build sovereign AI and enterprise AI capex accelerates. Trump is now publicly telling Americans to buy Dell, and his AI agenda centers on data centers and compute, with Dell in the middle of that trade. When he did the same with Intel, Intel rose 500%. x.comÂ
Dell is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the CPU shortage, gaining share in AI servers, traditional servers, storage and PCs as demand accelerates well past supply. AI server revenue rose 757% to $16.1B with a record $51.3B backlog, and traditional servers grew 92% as agentic AI needs CPUs to run the work around GPUs. Full-year revenue guidance rose about $27B to a $167B midpoint and EPS guidance to $17.90, a rare raise. Before the earnings jump it traded at only about 22x forward earnings. … Show more
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.comÂ
Lenovo's strong results answer the two biggest worries about AI servers, demand and profitability, which lifted Dell, HPE and Super Micro. Lenovo's Q1 revenue rose 43% to $26.94B, above the $22.3B expected, and adjusted net profit rose 176%. Its infrastructure group nearly doubled revenue with about $777M of operating profit, and its AI server pipeline reached $54B, up 157% from $21B last quarter, showing no cooling in demand and that AI servers become profitable at scale. x.comÂ
Dell's AI server business is growing on a trajectory that should appeal to anyone who likes Nvidia's, driven by a massive public and private AI factory buildout with a huge number of racks still to sell. Revenue rose 58% to $47B and infrastructure revenue 89% to $31.8B. AI server orders hit a record $60.9B in the quarter and $131.7B over four quarters, with AI backlog at $95B and the pipeline multiples of that. AI customers exceed 6,500, and traditional servers and networking grew 122%. x.com … Show more
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer should ride on Dell's results, since unlike Dell it has no legacy business, just the AI server business. x.comÂ