Copart looks more like a cyclical bet on insurance volumes than a durable leader. Its strengths were just as true in 2010-2020, yet something changed, and without identifying what would restore its lead over IAA, the case relies on volumes recovering. Rising ADAS penetration makes the volume problem look secular. x.com 

Copart benefits from driver-assistance and autonomous vehicles because it charges a take rate on the rising dollar value of total vehicle losses. LKQ is the real loser, as a buyer servicing fewer volumes whose European expansion disappointed, and it is now priced for no terminal growth, which could be right. x.com 

Copart, a high-quality leader, might be an opportunity because its multiple has been cut by two-thirds while the business has not deteriorated. x.com  x.com 

Copart may be an opportunity because its problems look short-term while its fundamentals stay incredibly clean: zero debt, a large cash pile and a cheap valuation. It takes a fee on every online auction of totaled cars insurers send it, without owning them, a cash machine with historically high margins. Since mid-2025, weak winter earnings, lower volumes as safer cars and pricey insurance lead drivers to pay for small accidents themselves, and a dip from its 42% operating margin hurt the stock. … Show more

Copart is a Strong Buy at 52-week lows, with Jay Adair's return and the planned ACV acquisition giving reasons to watch for a recovery. Its online auctions sit on a hard-to-replicate network of vehicle yards, a junkyard tollbooth hiding in plain sight, and the stock trades at about 17.6x earnings versus a historical 26.9x. Growth has slowed; the thesis depends on volume recovering and ACV expanding the opportunity. x.com  x.com 

Copart is the third name on a numbered list that also includes Adobe. x.com 

Copart's $1.9B all-cash ACV Auctions deal makes sense as a platform buy that moves Copart up the vehicle lifecycle, despite ACV's unimpressive numbers. ACV adds a dealer wholesale marketplace, inspections, transport, financing and AI valuation; combined with Copart's buyer network and vehicle history, that data could decide where each car goes and what it is worth. Copart pays a ~45% premium from $4.5B of cash with no debt and expects accretion from FY2028; its core must keep growing. x.com 

Copart probably offers a decent risk/reward at under 20x next-twelve-month earnings, if those numbers are believed to be true. x.com 

Copart's aggressive buybacks and incoming volume make a reversal plausible. Management spent $1.6 billion on repurchases in FY26, retiring over 43 million shares at about $37.63 on average in nine months, above today's price; it still has about $4.5 billion in cash and securities. $27.88 is the trigger, with chart targets at $28.88, $29.66 and $30.80. x.com