Trevor Scott
Founder & Portfolio Manager of Tidefall Capital Management
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.com
High Tide's lead in Canadian cannabis retail is widening toward a position competitors can hardly catch, yet it trades at about 5x EV/EBITDA. 23% of Canadian consumers now say Canna Cabana is the retailer they shop most often, more than double the next competitor's 11%. Its loyalty and discount model concentrates frequent users, so rivals must overcome both physical scale and an entrenched customer base, and High Tide is using its Canadian strength to grow internationally. x.com
Walmart's valuation looks like a bubble about to pop: investors pay 37x earnings for 6% revenue growth. Amazon is a more direct comparison and is way cheaper with roughly three times faster growth. x.com x.com
Walmart is a great company at a terrible price, trading near 38 times forward earnings while growth slows. Revenue and EPS beat, yet US comparable sales growth slowed to 2.6%, the weakest in six years, and the stock fell. Even after another 10% drop, it is not worth buying. x.com
Consumer-facing stocks remain vulnerable as even middle and upper-middle income shoppers pull back. Dave & Buster's fell 15% on ongoing "entertainment weakness", dragging the sector including Texas Roadhouse. Dollar General said at a Goldman conference that customers across income cohorts are somewhat distressed, with middle to upper-middle shoppers acting like lower-income ones. Diesel near $7 and gasoline near $4.50 add about $700M a day in fuel costs versus a year ago. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Walmart has the strongest fundamentals in retail, with $725B+ of revenue, exploding e-commerce and market-share gains while rivals bleed. It is a defensive cash-printing machine in a shaky economy, and analysts rate it a moderate buy with $140+ targets. x.com
Walmart's 41x P/E looks hard to justify when gas prices are going through the roof. x.com
Dollar General may be in a turnaround the market is missing, with improving traffic, expanding margins and a stronger balance sheet. Similar signs showed up in Advance Auto Parts when Wall Street had largely given up on it, before its shares roughly doubled within 30 days. x.com