Ian Bezek
Investor/Writer, Latin American Equities, Former Analyst at Kerrisdale
Grupo Aval's EPS estimates are far too low because investors underappreciate how much capital will be deployed in Colombia in 2026-30. Almost nothing has been built since the pandemic, no housing and few new stores, leaving huge pent-up demand. New apartments, commercial real estate and possibly infrastructure should flow to banks like Aval, and Abelardo is expected to permit mining and oil exploration everywhere except the Amazon. x.com x.comÂ
Credicorp is grossly overvalued and has less growth than Nubank, though it covers different South American markets. It is worth building a position only after a good correction. x.comÂ
Latin American names such as PagSeguro, StoneCo, MercadoLibre, dLocal, Grupo Aval and Ecopetrol could re-rate violently if the market keeps pricing them as fragile regional risk proxies while their businesses prove to be long-duration infrastructure assets. BofA is now waking up to the LatAm asset opportunity. x.comÂ
Banco Santander trades at a discount to lower-quality global peers. x.comÂ