Credicorp is grossly overvalued and has less growth than Nubank, though it covers different South American markets. It is worth building a position only after a good correction. x.com
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Grupo Cibest trades at only 8x earnings even though its EPS grew faster than expected. x.com
XP Inc. is an average company trading too richly. It sits at roughly the same valuation as US peers such as Morgan Stanley and Raymond James, which it doesn't deserve given Brazil's higher discount rates. A hard rally on the day makes sense, but the valuation does not. x.com
Nu Holdings has a structural cost advantage from its mobile-first, branchless model, which strips out traditional banks' complexity and high fees, and its valuation offers a good margin of safety. It also adds South American diversification and exposure to a disruptive model. The case assumes a terminal P/E of 16 and 18% annual EPS growth, though it is a quite sensitive business that calls for care. x.com
MercadoLibre is worth owning for 20 years because its marketplace, payments, credit and advertising reinforce one another, with a long reinvestment runway in underpenetrated Latin American e-commerce and digital finance. Quarterly revenue grew 50% despite its scale, making about 40x earnings very reasonable for its quality. A deep management bench under CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn reduces founder dependence. Risks include credit underwriting, competition from Sea and Amazon, currencies and regulation. … Show more
Inter & Co looks very cheap at 1.2x book and 5.5x 2027 earnings, with a 16% ROE and growth of about 20-25% a year. The multiple is depressed because it is a small-cap Brazilian bank with hit-or-miss English-language investor relations and some Brazilian consumer stress heading into a presidential election. Compared with Nu, it carries more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets re-rated. x.com x.com x.com x.com
MercadoLibre's business results should begin inflecting as credit portfolio growth slows now that the book has reached scale. An excellent outcome in Brazil improves the economic backdrop, and the stock sat at the technical bottom of its consolidation wedge. The economic backdrop, forward results and technicals all look very bullish. x.com x.com
Grupo Aval is the preferred catch-up trade in Colombian banks over its larger, more liquid peer Bancolombia, which is worth about $100, so buying Bancolombia here means hoping for an overshoot of fair value. x.com
Oscar Health, Sea Limited and MercadoLibre trade at valuations disconnected from their fundamentals because the market is sidelining consumer and e-commerce names for the AI hardware story. All three show double-digit to 45%+ revenue growth, improving profitability and solid Rule of X metrics at remarkably low multiples. Oscar is finally delivering, Sea's core marketplace is reaccelerating, and MercadoLibre keeps compounding in Latin America. A non-US discount widens the gap. x.com
Coupang, Sea and MercadoLibre remain dead money: their charts are broken, they are still overvalued and they face too much competition. Even after recent gains in Sea, they could stay dead money from here; they might be value, but that won't be known for a couple of years, and value traps are a devastating source of capital impairment. x.com x.com