Ian Bezek
Investor/Writer, Latin American Equities, Former Analyst at Kerrisdale
Credicorp is grossly overvalued and has less growth than Nubank, though it covers different South American markets. It is worth building a position only after a good correction. x.comÂ
Equity Bancshares looks cheap against its expected earnings at $47.54. It trades at 28x trailing earnings but about 9x next year's, versus a typical 12x for banks. At 12x next year's $5.47 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value runs $57.79 to $73.56, leaving the stock 18% below the low end. The case leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 222% above trailing, and rests on valuation levels rather than fundamental work. x.comÂ
Nu Holdings has a structural cost advantage from its mobile-first, branchless model, which strips out traditional banks' complexity and high fees, and its valuation offers a good margin of safety. It also adds South American diversification and exposure to a disruptive model. The case assumes a terminal P/E of 16 and 18% annual EPS growth, though it is a quite sensitive business that calls for care. x.comÂ
PagSeguro, which operates PagBank, is priced like a declining business even though it is a profitable fintech with 34M customers, double-digit growth and a P/E of about 7x. x.comÂ