Eric Jhonsa
Technology Portfolio Manager at Dutch Asset
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.comÂ
Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow still generate massive cash flow, push deeper into AI and sit at the center of enterprise operations. Three of the biggest SaaS names remain beaten up in 2026; their valuations have been crushed, but the long-term opportunity may not have been. The market has swung way too far against them. x.comÂ
Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce is cheap at about 10x EV/GAAP EBITDA and 10x free cash flow without adding back stock compensation, with about $13B of FCF this year, while growing revenue 10%. At that multiple, private equity's software deals would be deeply underwater on a true mark to market. Per @PodcastAlphaX, Box CEO Aaron Levie uses Salesforce five times more after linking its MCP server to Claude Code, a sign agents increase use of the platform rather than replace it. x.com x.comÂ
monday.com is a profitable SaaS platform priced like legacy software because the market fears AI disruption. Q1 was very solid: revenue grew 24%, GAAP operating income was positive, free cash flow was strong, and enterprise customers are still growing much faster. Yet the stock remains deep in the penalty box. x.comÂ
Workday's Q2 was totally fine, and the business is steadier than the bearish narrative implied. Growth relies on upselling a mature HCM and finance base, giving about 10-12% revenue growth, while margins have plenty of room to rise from 14% GAAP. AI is only 6% of revenue, so the business is unlikely to change much. The real risk is big companies shifting spending to hotter AI tools such as Claude. A sale anywhere below $250 would be insulting to shareholders, and 20x earnings power is not crazy. … Show more
Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com … Show more
Monday.com's valuation is ridiculously low, making it worth buying more despite concern about decelerating growth; fair value is at least $130 a share. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce and Workday have another 25% downside, with Adobe already trading at 7x. That holds even against @dalibali2's point that both sit near single-digit free-cash-flow multiples and can keep growing free cash flow by double digits for a long time. x.comÂ
Workday at 3x sales is a travesty for a business of its quality, implying the market expects management to destroy value through poor capital allocation on top of AI fears. It could likely raise margins toward 30% without much customer impact, given bloat and complacency; the same factors that make it easy to catch up also make it easy to run more profitably. Venture valuations like Rippling's make more sense with Workday at 6-8x sales. x.com x.com x.comÂ