Natan
Contrarian Stock Investor
Monday.com is breaking out of a base built since February after raising its 2026 guidance, with some analysts flagging it as still meaningfully undervalued. Two pennant consolidations formed in May and June, and price is reclaiming its 20/50 EMA cloud, with strong volume support in the upper $70s and buyers stepping in on pullbacks. It needs to clear and hold $81.21 to confirm the breakout, with targets of $97.30 and $109.58. x.comÂ
monday.com is priced as if growth will soon turn negative, which is far from certain, at 1.1x 2027 EV/sales and 9x 2027 EV/FCF excluding SBC. It still grows in the high teens with 110% net dollar retention and just bought back a lot of stock. AI clearly threatens its UI/UX edge, but its AI features, integrations and security and governance may be hard for purely agentic tools to replicate; shorts seem to be pressing. x.com x.comÂ
monday.com is betting against AI disruption fears by buying back 15% of its float in Q1, and software will bifurcate between winners and losers. The stock has fully round-tripped. Owning it is preferable even at the risk of being wrong, but it needs time. x.comÂ
monday.com is a profitable SaaS platform priced like legacy software because the market fears AI disruption. Q1 was very solid: revenue grew 24%, GAAP operating income was positive, free cash flow was strong, and enterprise customers are still growing much faster. Yet the stock remains deep in the penalty box. x.comÂ
Some software stocks had gotten stupid cheap, including monday.com, Wix, Cellebrite, Adobe, Salesforce and Workday, which makes the sector's rebound welcome. x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian's rally is hard to justify as growth heads to the teens. Revenue grew 28% last quarter and 26% for FY26, but Q1 FY27 is guided to 19.7% and full FY27 implies about 13%. With EV/sales still in single digits, the stock is probably at fair value for high-teens growth. In some places git is replacing Jira, which is ancient technology. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
ServiceNow is probably capped around $140-$150, beyond which it would likely get frothy, assuming software sentiment holds. Revenue growth in the low-to-mid 20s makes it hard to command more than 10x EV/sales with a P/E already near 80. Upside toward $180 is possible if it shows revenue reacceleration or cleans up acquisition-heavy books and opex to bring its P/E to 30-40. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian's quarter was hard to fault: beyond a revenue beat and raise, the bottom line, GAAP operating margin, RPO and cloud revenue were all good. The Q1 FY27 guide of 19.5% year-over-year growth at the midpoint looks conservative for the start of the year, and vibe-coded tools are no real threat to replace Jira. x.com x.com x.comÂ