SV_Techie
Entrepreneur & Startup Mentor, Technology Investor
Atlassian's rally is hard to justify as growth heads to the teens. Revenue grew 28% last quarter and 26% for FY26, but Q1 FY27 is guided to 19.7% and full FY27 implies about 13%. With EV/sales still in single digits, the stock is probably at fair value for high-teens growth. In some places git is replacing Jira, which is ancient technology. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Atlassian lacks much of a moat and is a deeply unprofitable company, especially given all the productivity gains from AI. Not all SaaS companies are created equal: even after falling nearly 50% from its peak, Atlassian should not be grouped with a unique, high-quality name like Datadog, contrary to @bradmenezes' view that AI is reaccelerating software and the SaaSpocalypse is over. x.com
Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Atlassian is hard to buy despite strong contracted demand, because insiders have sold so heavily. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognized and a precursor to reported revenue, accelerated sharply in Q2 2026. Even so, it does not look like the best opportunity in the market. x.com x.com
Atlassian's results show AI boosting the business rather than hurting it, corroborating all eight qualitative estimates made in the original thesis. x.com
Atlassian won't grow beyond inflation because nearly everyone already owns its product, so its rally is simply the market bidding up software as money rotates out of semiconductors. @sv_techie notes 28% growth last quarter and 26% for fiscal 2026, but guidance of 19.7% for the next quarter and about 13% for fiscal 2027. x.com
Atlassian is not a buy even after an ~80% drawdown since January 2025 to an $18b market cap. Its products aren't that great, and it lacks the customer lock-in that Salesforce enjoys. x.com
Atlassian at $57-60 trades near decade lows while still growing 24%, and could reach $200+ in a few years if software becomes the next bubble after semiconductors. Its own AI agents, such as Rovo, are a plus. A replier who works in software warns that big-company contract cancellations slated for 2027 could be high, though that may already be in the price. x.com x.com x.com
ServiceNow's growth looks likely to keep slowing, yet it trades at 50x 2027 GAAP EPS versus 20-25x for Microsoft, Google and Amazon growing as fast or faster. Subscription revenue grew about 21%, but the customer base is flat, so growth relies on upselling modules. Operating margin dipped and stock-based pay rose. Customers are mixed on its AI products and delay over price. Big SaaS firms near 20% growth often slide faster than expected, and its long-term targets look hard to reach. x.com x.com
Figma is still expensive and would only look attractive at Salesforce, Workday or Atlassian multiples. A post the author replies to argues the stock's failure to jump on strong numbers shows how bad sentiment is. x.com
Atlassian's quarter was hard to fault: beyond a revenue beat and raise, the bottom line, GAAP operating margin, RPO and cloud revenue were all good. The Q1 FY27 guide of 19.5% year-over-year growth at the midpoint looks conservative for the start of the year, and vibe-coded tools are no real threat to replace Jira. x.com x.com x.com
GitLab is badly undervalued, with the market ignoring over $1B of ARR, $1.26B of cash and almost no debt at a $3.77B market cap and a $21–22 share price. A market-cap-over-DCF model gives a P50 value of $46.83 even before last night's AWS deal, with a path to $74.50 in 3–5 years. The biggest bear point is that nothing in Silicon Valley would be disrupted if GitLab stopped existing tomorrow because of AI. x.com x.com
