Atlassian is not a buy even after an ~80% drawdown since January 2025 to an $18b market cap. Its products aren't that great, and it lacks the customer lock-in that Salesforce enjoys. x.com 

Atlassian won't grow beyond inflation because nearly everyone already owns its product, so its rally is simply the market bidding up software as money rotates out of semiconductors. @sv_techie notes 28% growth last quarter and 26% for fiscal 2026, but guidance of 19.7% for the next quarter and about 13% for fiscal 2027. x.com 

Atlassian is flagged as bullish with no reason given, only a ticker mention and a link. x.com 

Atlassian's rally is hard to justify as growth heads to the teens. Revenue grew 28% last quarter and 26% for FY26, but Q1 FY27 is guided to 19.7% and full FY27 implies about 13%. With EV/sales still in single digits, the stock is probably at fair value for high-teens growth. In some places git is replacing Jira, which is ancient technology. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Atlassian is disproving the narrative that AI kills its business, with remaining performance obligations up 44% year over year in Q4 FY26. That makes two of the last four quarters against the narrative, and four and a half years after ChatGPT launched, the platform is still compounding. x.com 

Atlassian is not run for shareholders, because its stock-based compensation is as large as its free cash flow, leaving owner earnings at zero. That holds even if, as a reply argues, Jira and Confluence have strong moats and AI worries have unfairly hit the stock. x.com 

Atlassian is far less cash-rich than it looks once stock-based compensation is treated as a real cost. About $1.3 billion of operating cash flow and only $50 million of capex look strong, but roughly $1.5 billion of SBC is the real spend, $165 million more than operating cash flow. Paying employees in stock flatters cash flow while diluting shareholders, and buybacks only partially offset SBC rather than reducing the share count. x.com  x.com 

Atlassian's results show AI boosting the business rather than hurting it, corroborating all eight qualitative estimates made in the original thesis. x.com 

Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more