Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
Atlassian is disproving the narrative that AI kills its business, with remaining performance obligations up 44% year over year in Q4 FY26. That makes two of the last four quarters against the narrative, and four and a half years after ChatGPT launched, the platform is still compounding. x.comÂ
Atlassian got too cheap at 2x next-12-month revenue going into earnings and could re-rate to 4-5x, even after a 24% jump that still leaves it 85% below its highs. AI may pressure such companies, but that isn't showing up yet, and the market may be wrong that they won't adapt; some will get stronger by integrating AI. After $114, $139, the February 2025 VWAP and about 5x forward revenue, is a reasonable target. x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian's results show AI boosting the business rather than hurting it, corroborating all eight qualitative estimates made in the original thesis. x.comÂ
Atlassian is hard to buy despite strong contracted demand, because insiders have sold so heavily. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognized and a precursor to reported revenue, accelerated sharply in Q2 2026. Even so, it does not look like the best opportunity in the market. x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more
Atlassian is flagged as bullish with no reason given, only a ticker mention and a link. x.comÂ
Atlassian's rally is hard to justify as growth heads to the teens. Revenue grew 28% last quarter and 26% for FY26, but Q1 FY27 is guided to 19.7% and full FY27 implies about 13%. With EV/sales still in single digits, the stock is probably at fair value for high-teens growth. In some places git is replacing Jira, which is ancient technology. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
These software names get stronger as AI grows, despite the early-2026 "AI will kill SaaS" sell-off. ServiceNow is becoming the control room that manages companies' AI agents. Salesforce's Agentforce brings in $1.2B a year and is tripling; Atlassian clients using Rovo spend twice as much; Adobe's business-safe Firefly earns $250M; Workday's agents bring nearly $500M. SAP and Snowflake hold the data AI needs, and Datadog monitors the extra systems AI creates, with the AI wave still early. x.com … Show more
Atlassian has broken out of a year-long downtrend on cloud and AI growth, with Q3 results up 29%, a Leader rating in Gartner's 2026 DevSecOps Magic Quadrant and Wall Street lifting targets. It is retesting the top of its descending channel as support, and heavy volume shows real accumulation. A move above $96.50 targets $119.38, then $139.70 and $157.29. x.comÂ
Atlassian won't grow beyond inflation because nearly everyone already owns its product, so its rally is simply the market bidding up software as money rotates out of semiconductors. @sv_techie notes 28% growth last quarter and 26% for fiscal 2026, but guidance of 19.7% for the next quarter and about 13% for fiscal 2027. x.comÂ
Atlassian has been punished by narrative-driven selling rather than fundamentals, since its estimates have only gone up. Goldman Sachs and other banks pushed AI-loser baskets, pods reinforced the narrative despite tiny position sizes, and Millennium front-ran the resulting index removal, sending the stock from 140 to 56 and back in six months. Such extreme moves risk becoming reflexive, pushing companies toward layoffs or bad management decisions. x.com x.comÂ
