TJ
Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter
Monday.com is breaking out of a base built since February after raising its 2026 guidance, with some analysts flagging it as still meaningfully undervalued. Two pennant consolidations formed in May and June, and price is reclaiming its 20/50 EMA cloud, with strong volume support in the upper $70s and buyers stepping in on pullbacks. It needs to clear and hold $81.21 to confirm the breakout, with targets of $97.30 and $109.58. x.comÂ
Monday.com is scaling profitably as an AI work platform, with record operating profit of $49M and a 29% adjusted free-cash-flow margin. Net dollar retention is 110% overall and 115-116% among $50K+ and $100K+ ARR customers, and record net adds of $500K+ ARR customers signal enterprise momentum. Q1 buybacks of $552.6M show management confidence, and it trades at about 16.6x forward earnings versus 30x trailing. It could reach $94 before month-end. x.com x.comÂ
Monday.com's valuation is ridiculously low, making it worth buying more despite concern about decelerating growth; fair value is at least $130 a share. x.com x.comÂ
monday.com is betting against AI disruption fears by buying back 15% of its float in Q1, and software will bifurcate between winners and losers. The stock has fully round-tripped. Owning it is preferable even at the risk of being wrong, but it needs time. x.comÂ
monday.com is priced as if growth will soon turn negative, which is far from certain, at 1.1x 2027 EV/sales and 9x 2027 EV/FCF excluding SBC. It still grows in the high teens with 110% net dollar retention and just bought back a lot of stock. AI clearly threatens its UI/UX edge, but its AI features, integrations and security and governance may be hard for purely agentic tools to replicate; shorts seem to be pressing. x.com x.comÂ
monday.com is a profitable SaaS platform priced like legacy software because the market fears AI disruption. Q1 was very solid: revenue grew 24%, GAAP operating income was positive, free cash flow was strong, and enterprise customers are still growing much faster. Yet the stock remains deep in the penalty box. x.comÂ
Some software stocks had gotten stupid cheap, including monday.com, Wix, Cellebrite, Adobe, Salesforce and Workday, which makes the sector's rebound welcome. x.com x.comÂ
