Ouster is a bet on the robotics S-curve, backed by a balance sheet with no debt and about $220 million of cash. Customers include Komatsu, under a multimillion-dollar deal for lidar across autonomous mining, construction and forestry equipment, John Deere in heavy equipment automation, Motional in autonomous vehicles and Serve Robotics in delivery robots. Dilution is acceptable for a growth stock, though a reply notes 22% dilution against 32% ex-royalty revenue growth. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Serve Robotics' sidewalk-delivery model looks unlikely to work at scale, and its data moat is weaker than claimed. Without turning streets into something close to an Orwellian surveillance environment, theft, vandalism and security costs will likely make wide deployment uneconomic, worst in dense urban areas. Tesla's FSD data is transferable and already trains Optimus. Uber cut its stake to 2-3%, Starship Technologies looks stronger, and customer DoorDash is building its own robot, Dot. x.com 

Serve Robotics is a Level 4 physical AI platform trading like a pizza-delivery stock, and it should revalue rapidly as robotics gains steam. Its fleet grew from about 100 robots a year ago to 2,000 Gen3 units in 44 cities, built by Magna, with 1.8M+ deliveries, a 99.8% completion rate and no major safety incidents; its autonomy stack works whether the payload is food or medical supplies. The risks are real: cash burn, a $150M ATM, negative gross margins and guidance needing a steep H2 ramp. … Show more

Ouster is positioned to be rerated as lidar becomes a sought-after industry once autonomy and robotics go mainstream. Its niche market has limited competition, making it easy for investors to find, much as memory's scarcity made Micron the easy pick when AI demand hit, though at a far smaller scale. If its numbers keep growing and it stays on track for positive operating profit, a rerate could come easily; valuation is hard because robotics has not had its breakthrough yet. x.com 

Richtech Robotics showed all the red flags: under $10M in the bank while trying to sell AI robots, which takes hundreds of millions to do properly, heavy at-the-market dilution, a team with little experience, and customers presented as partnerships. x.com 

Palladyne AI offers software-layer asymmetry in robotics, as the controls software that tells a robot what to do once its hardware can move. At a $415 million market cap, it sells autonomy stacks built on a skill library trained on real-world robot demos to robot OEMs and defense contractors; hardware ships at a slope while software margins compound. The catalyst is its contract pipeline with the US Army and tier-one OEMs. It is a micro-cap, illiquid and concentrated in a single program. x.com 

Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com  x.com  x.com