DON7SPY
Industrial Engineer, MBA Finance, Data/Supply-Chain Background, Options Analysis
Intel's rally is gamma-squeeze and momentum froth, not fundamentals, with its market cap jumping from $200 billion to $500 billion in a month without much change in the business. EPS won't even reach $1-1.5 this year, after $0.29 in Q1 and $0.20 guided for Q2, so it looks overvalued. It may take 18 months for the froth to fade and the stock to trade at reality. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel's solid miss fits a longstanding negative view of the stock. ZeroHedge reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.25 versus $0.45 expected and revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion versus $17.29 billion expected. x.comÂ
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's lack of real AI or foundry plans is showing in weak Q4 guidance. It forecasts $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue versus $17.08 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 versus $0.44, despite Q3 EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $16.51 billion beating expectations. x.comÂ
Intel's weak guidance undermines the turnaround bet. The whole turnaround now looks like a scam, though the view will be reassessed later. x.com x.comÂ
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.comÂ
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's recovery looks fragile because PC softness could persist through at least the first half of 2027. Management's weak Q4 outlook suggests the pressure may outlast one disappointing forecast. x.comÂ
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.comÂ
