Finn Stockinger
Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research
KULR's case rests on scaling production and generating real profits, with the ramp funded by a bitcoin-backed loan from Coinbase. The risk is that the stock remains heavily correlated with bitcoin, though the recent pullback has not hurt it much. The CEO has committed to buying no more bitcoin, but it is still a financial asset on the balance sheet and serves as the loan's collateral. x.comÂ
KULR's Q1 loss hides a painful but structurally sound shift from low-margin R&D shop to high-margin manufacturer, with gross margin up to 29% from 8%. Of the $28.1M net loss, $20.8M was a non-cash mark-to-market hit on its 1,083 BTC. It did not sell bitcoin; it pledged 300 BTC for a $15M Coinbase Credit drawdown. Revenue rose 98% to $4.85M. Texas is the test: CEO Michael Mo targets start of production on automated lines in Q3 2026 and 10,000 packs a month by year-end. x.comÂ
KULR is funding growth without diluting shareholders, extending its at-the-market equity pause through September 30, 2026 and drawing on cash and its Bitcoin treasury instead. It holds about 1,085 BTC and roughly $19M in cash. Q1's $28M net loss was mostly a $20M+ non-cash Bitcoin markdown, while revenue nearly doubled to $4.8M, gross margin rose from 8% to 29% and the operating loss shrank. Its battery business for spaceflight, military drones and data-center backup is getting healthier. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
KULR is a tiny thermal-management company with tiny sales and fat losses, leaning on a bitcoin treasury for personality; its NASA name-drop doesn't pay for the cash burn. x.comÂ
Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com x.comÂ
Metaplanet's zero-interest financing lets it buy back stock and lift bitcoin per share without selling its coins. It just raised $329m in five-year euro-yen convertibles, with $149m for bitcoin-backed loan repayment and up to $179m for repurchases starting tomorrow. It holds 44,000 BTC; this is a bitcoin treasury play half of crypto Twitter is overlooking. x.comÂ
Coinbase should recover into a more diversified business when bitcoin recovers, yet it trades as if its only product broke. In nine months it added zero-commission stock trading, prediction markets at $100M annualized revenue, stock and pre-IPO perps, and derivatives at $200M annualized, and it receives about 50% of USDC economics. Bitcoin near $64K sits below its ~$87K mining cost, historically a buy signal. At 6-7x sales versus Robinhood's 18.6x, the risk/reward is favorable. x.comÂ
Speculative capital may rotate out of the crushed AI memory trade and back into crypto, lifting bitcoin and Coinbase. South Korean retail spent the past year leaving crypto for memory stocks; now the KOSPI fell 5.8%, Samsung 7.8% and SK hynix 9.8%, with Micron and Sandisk also hit. The last time Korean stocks were crushed, crypto volume exploded as capital rotated into bitcoin and ether. Korean retail is still buying the dip, so capitulation could drive one of the year's fastest rotations. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's upside needs lower oil and inflation and stronger risk appetite; that macro shift has not arrived. IBIT holding 46.3 is a good sign, and its topping short-term cycle is not a deal killer. x.comÂ
Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com x.com … Show more
Coinbase is pivoting from retail brokerage to the main institutional gateway for crypto, which its price does not fully credit; rated Overweight with a $290 December 2026 target. Spot bitcoin and ether ETPs validated its infrastructure, while custody, Circle revenue and stablecoin income give a floor beyond retail trading. The sum-of-the-parts target values the exchange at 35x plus Circle, crypto holdings and Base. Q1 was a big miss, yet the stock should rise. Risks: a crypto slump, new rivals. … Show more
