Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com x.com
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.com
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com
Strategy needs a solid bid to preserve the premium that funds its bitcoin purchases. MSCI's new rules could eject it from global indexes and force passive selling; JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in Strategy share sales if that happens, or up to $8.8 billion if others follow. Without the premium, it cannot raise funds to buy bitcoin. Watch whether the rules bite on November 30. x.com
Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com
Strategy is turning to selling bitcoin to rescue its troubled STRC preferred program, which points toward bankruptcy. It launched a Bitcoin Monetization Program that lets it sell BTC to fund operations, per Watcher.Guru, and the news sent the preferred up 10%, meaning it would sell bitcoin low to support STRC high. x.com
Strategy is at its core leveraged Bitcoin, so a 3x Bitcoin move to $200K should send Strategy up 4-5x from here. x.com
Strategy is a buy because bitcoin will rally, with $80K set to crack soon. Strategy now owns more bitcoin than it did in May. x.com
Strategy's STRC preferred is a fragile wrapper around an antifragile asset; bitcoin itself needs no confidence in an issuer. STRC turns bitcoin volatility into a recurring cash obligation that depends on investor confidence, liquidity and staying near par. @Excellion says there is no peg to defend; below par does halt new issuance, but that is not self-repair, as the dividend remains. STRC will likely be fine as bitcoin follows its power law, but Strategy should move to bitcoin-secured credit. … Show more
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.com
