Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's funding machine is breaking as its STRC preferred trades far below $100 par, threatening a death spiral. STRC pays about 11.5% and lets Strategy buy bitcoin only while near par; at a new low of about $82, issuance stops, yet cash dividends are still due. Cash has fallen from $2.25 billion to about $1 billion, and Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to cover STRC obligations. Higher payouts mean more bitcoin sales, which hit bitcoin's price and confidence, pushing STRC lower again. x.com 

Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Strategy needs to generate revenue, such as yield on its bitcoin, to reduce its reliance on diluting common shareholders. It has bought no bitcoin for 35 days even as bitcoin rose, while buying back STRC preferred below par. Dilution was the only option for a long time, but it cannot remain the model. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Institutional diversification and investor preference leave room for multiple Bitcoin-treasury companies to sell digital credit. The $350T fixed-income market dwarfs today's $20B digital-credit market. Digital credit will become a multi-trillion-dollar industry within a decade, with multiple new issuers offering preferreds like Strategy's STRC and Strive's SATA in 3-5 years. If Bitcoin does well, their large holdings and structures will let them all do well and outperform it. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin could gain new demand from a USD-income market worth trillions because Bitcoin-backed preferreds may offer fixed dividends above equity, real estate and bond yields even as share prices fluctuate. From IPO through October 9, STRC and SATA traded at or above $100 on just 16% and 24% of days; income stays fixed if dividends are paid. Issuers can use proceeds to buy BTC. Bitcoin and this income market could grow faster than traditional assets without those assets crashing. x.com