Booking Holdings looks ridiculously cheap against its own history, and its business and moat inspire much more confidence than Uber's even with AI risk. Its P/FCF is 11.94, versus a ten-year median of 18.85. x.com 

Booking Holdings' buybacks keep increasing each shareholder's ownership share every quarter without any additional purchases. x.com 

Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com  … Show more

AI price-comparison risk to Booking Holdings is a big nothing burger, since Google and Google Maps have offered comparisons for ages. Personal checks find Google showing no better price than Booking about two-thirds of the time, and saving a few euros is not worth another spam account or the lost time. Having all bookings in one app is also far more convenient than digging through a messy Gmail inbox. x.com  x.com 

Booking Holdings has probably bottomed, and money could eventually rotate into companies actually using AI to improve their business, which the market does not yet see. Record dollar volume on sweeps of prior lows, old resistance holding as support and failed new lows suggest sellers are exhausted, with price about 30% off its highs. It is still a laggard fighting the trend while semis rip, so it merits a small starter, not size, stopped on a new low. x.com  x.com 

AI agents threaten Booking Holdings' margins. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com 

Royal Caribbean's latest move looks like diworsification of the already difficult cruise industry, because owning travel assets is a bad model. Booking and royalty-style franchisers such as Marriott and Hilton, which avoid owning those assets, are the better way to play travel. x.com 

Booking Holdings' valuation is quite clearly attractive, though AI agents may roam around and book hotels directly for people. Google I/O raised concerns about most internet names, leaving it unclear whether agentic AI will really hurt Booking. x.com  x.com 

Booking Holdings and Expedia look like a secular short with capped upside as their take rates come under pressure, though probably not within the next 60 days. As with Salesforce, the argument that they could simply run headless will be raised, and the market knows it from SaaS. Take rates should compress first where barriers to bringing inventory online are lowest; the platforms would then respond with aggressive marketing and margin dilution, extending their growth runway somewhat. x.com 

Many high-quality stocks still trade at deep discounts even with the S&P 500 just 2% below its all-time high. Uber, Nu, AppLovin, Inter, American Express, Klarna, SoFi, MercadoLibre and Booking trade at 6-32x 2027 earnings with five-year revenue CAGRs of 11-58%. Brookfield trades at 15x 2027 distributable earnings, with an 18% five-year growth rate. Consensus price targets include $101 for Uber, $501 for AppLovin and $2,200 for MercadoLibre. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more