Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
Booking Holdings faces real uncertainty as the market doubts its middleman role, fearing AI agents will book trips instead, while hotels have long resented its power. Its valuation looks more than reasonable and it keeps real strengths, but pricing power will likely come under pressure and it could lose some partners over time. The market may price this in ahead of time, so staying on the sidelines is preferable for now. x.com
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com
AI price-comparison risk to Booking Holdings is a big nothing burger, since Google and Google Maps have offered comparisons for ages. Personal checks find Google showing no better price than Booking about two-thirds of the time, and saving a few euros is not worth another spam account or the lost time. Having all bookings in one app is also far more convenient than digging through a messy Gmail inbox. x.com x.com
AI agents threaten Booking Holdings' margins. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.com
Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.com
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.com
Booking Holdings faces a valid long-term bear case as AI agents could take a share of the 13-18% online travel take rate. Testing Meta's Muse and Instinct for a hotel search showed them drawing on Booking and Expedia inventory for now, but agents could eventually build direct ties with long-tail hotels, better reviews and pre- and post-booking service at lower fees. OTAs' own agents look mediocre and lack users' context. At 13x 2027 EPS it tempts as a contrarian long, but looks too tough. x.com … Show more
Uber is well on its way to becoming a compounding machine: revenue and free-cash-flow growth have been strong and consistent, while its moat widens through network effects and its flywheel ecosystem. At 23x forward earnings it looks like a very interesting opportunity, and the bear narratives are often overblown. x.com
Cash generation and market values have diverged for these twelve beaten-down stocks. Over the long term, valuations tend to follow the cash businesses produce; the charts compare quarterly free cash flow with market capitalization for Uber, Netflix, Intuit, Adobe, PayPal, McDonald's, Snap, Duolingo, Chewy, Pinterest, Reddit and e.l.f. Beauty. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Booking Holdings and Expedia look like a secular short with capped upside as their take rates come under pressure, though probably not within the next 60 days. As with Salesforce, the argument that they could simply run headless will be raised, and the market knows it from SaaS. Take rates should compress first where barriers to bringing inventory online are lowest; the platforms would then respond with aggressive marketing and margin dilution, extending their growth runway somewhat. x.com
Uber looks cheap at 15x price to free cash flow, about a 31% discount to its historic average valuation. x.com