Ginkgo Bioworks is a highly speculative bet that its new autonomous AI wet lab concept makes this time different. Serious partnerships with Google, OpenAI and now Eli Lilly, which drove the recent jump, add confirmation and more confidence to hold, and the move may be just getting started. The risk is management's bad history of reverse splits, pivots and dilution. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com  … Show more

Allbirds' pivot from footwear to AI infrastructure looks like a loss-making machine that will dilute shareholders again and again, so its jump should fade faster than most expect. Per @amitisinvesting, Allbirds is selling all its assets and raising $50 million in convertibles to buy GPUs. Retail buyers are serving as exit liquidity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

BlockchAIn looks highly risky because of shady governance and an AI pivot it cannot fund. The roughly $43M bitcoin hosting company has a 40MW South Carolina site, about $1.25M of cash and a related-party main customer, and its AI plans rest on non-binding LOIs needing $200-400M of capex, implying heavy dilution. CEO Jerry Tang controls 69.9% through entities that also collect fees; Tiger Cloud's Q1 fees rose 4x to $325K. It also disclosed two material weaknesses in internal controls. x.com  x.com  … Show more

MARA lacks vision because CEO Fred Thiel keeps bouncing between strategies, from bitcoin treasury company to AI data-center play. Per @Tsuff101, he opposed the AI pivot and bought tens of thousands of bitcoin during the treasury hype, only for MARA to later sell 20K BTC around $60K, and now sounds more bullish on AI infrastructure than mining. He is late to the space, and his turning bullish is if anything a contrarian signal. x.com 

Allbirds' AI pivot looks like a pump and dump, because the company is unlikely to secure power or GPUs at any reasonable scale and needs far more money than this note provides to have a chance. @Lazarus_Capital expects an equity raise, management getting paid and a pivot to the next thing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Ethereum feels weak with no clear catalyst, despite an appealing story of institutional adoption for real utility and infrastructure. The crypto craze may have petered out after about 15 years, and bitter memories of losses from counterparty blowups such as Voyager and FTX may never fade. x.com 

IREN's AI cloud overtook bitcoin mining as a share of revenue this quarter, showing the transition is scaling into what customers want. Everything remains on track for $4 billion of ARR by year-end, with Q3 and Q4 starting the real growth inflection. The earnings call was poor and the unnamed frontier-lab partner is odd, likely still an LOI or late-stage deal, but the thesis is intact. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin miners converting to AI infrastructure, such as IREN and Keel, are likely to be poor trades. For five years they have raised as much capital as possible and spent it on capex with no prospect of return, and the realistic base case is another dilution-fueled capex spree. They failed to generate shareholder returns even when bitcoin soared. The exception is a hard management reset, as at Core Scientific; the rest are run by the same people. Keel fell 9% on a planned $350 million offering. … Show more