There is no reason to own Strategy until bitcoin has a bid, as it now solves huge problems with temporary fixes, like an emerging-market central bank. It is no longer a bitcoin buyer; crypto's $38 billion post-election buyer now carries solvency risk. Michael Saylor has repeatedly broken promises such as keeping NAV ratios and not selling bitcoin, making the equity riskier than BTC. That holds until treasury-company insolvency risk fades, rate cuts look likely and bitcoin regains appeal. x.com  … Show more

Strategy's mNAV has dropped below 1, which will make it much harder to issue new shares. The company is valued at just $29.5 billion despite holding over $51 billion of bitcoin, as investors who once treated it like a leveraged bitcoin ETF, issuing shares to buy more bitcoin at a premium, now doubt the whole structure amid serious dilution. x.com  x.com 

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy is cooked after mismanaging its balance sheet, per Jeff Dorman speaking with Laura Shin. It raised about $2 billion to cover dividends for 18 months, then a month later spent $1.4 billion of that cushion buying back 2029 convertible debt at 92 cents, debt not due for three years. That cut the cushion to about four months, and Michael Saylor now signals Strategy may sell bitcoin, which Dorman says is why both bitcoin and the stock are imploding. x.com 

Strategy's model of lending against bitcoin holds up because a rising reserve asset sets a hurdle for investment, not a prohibition. If bitcoin rises 20% and an enterprise turns $100 into $140, it still grows wealth in bitcoin terms by 16.7%. The hurdle also falls as bitcoin matures, like any asset whose prospective return drops as its price rises. From 2013 through 2025, simply holding bitcoin beat almost any effort, but early adoption is a poor discount rate for every future investment. x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred is a fragile wrapper around an antifragile asset; bitcoin itself needs no confidence in an issuer. STRC turns bitcoin volatility into a recurring cash obligation that depends on investor confidence, liquidity and staying near par. @Excellion says there is no peg to defend; below par does halt new issuance, but that is not self-repair, as the dividend remains. STRC will likely be fine as bitcoin follows its power law, but Strategy should move to bitcoin-secured credit. … Show more

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com  … Show more