Brian G
Engineer & CFA, Trend-Based Market Analysis
Strategy is cooked after mismanaging its balance sheet, per Jeff Dorman speaking with Laura Shin. It raised about $2 billion to cover dividends for 18 months, then a month later spent $1.4 billion of that cushion buying back 2029 convertible debt at 92 cents, debt not due for three years. That cut the cushion to about four months, and Michael Saylor now signals Strategy may sell bitcoin, which Dorman says is why both bitcoin and the stock are imploding. x.comÂ
Strategy's board-approved framework allowing bitcoin sales is a pressure valve that signals building stress and could start a downward spiral. Its $2.55B USD reserve covers only 17 months of dividend and interest payments, its 847,000 BTC carry about a $13B unrealized loss, and the stock fell almost 30% in a week. Because Strategy holds 2.8% of all bitcoin, even small sales would be seen instantly, panicking MSTR holders whose thesis is never selling and making new equity raises harder. x.comÂ
Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.comÂ
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy has stopped being a bitcoin company and become a yield flywheel, diluting the stock or selling bitcoin week after week to keep the yield, despite claims all year that it was well capitalized. Per @DeItaone, it raised $333.7 million selling 3.46 million shares through its ATM program last week and bought no bitcoin, using proceeds for preferred dividends, $132.2 million of STRC buybacks and cash reserves. As @ShevY_xx put it, the yield is now the product and the coin just collateral. … Show more
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.comÂ
Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.comÂ
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy common holders have been endlessly abused and diluted so Michael Saylor can keep his Ponzi afloat and avoid selling bitcoin, with the company issuing MSTR shares to raise USD cash. x.comÂ
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's sale of $216 million of Bitcoin to fund dividends exposes its flawed model: it bought Bitcoin above $120,000 and is now selling around $62,000. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin fell below $62,000 after the sale was announced. x.comÂ
