qinbafrank
AI/Crypto/TMT Investor, Global Liquidity & Macro, Cycle-Based Investing
Falling US bank reserves are a liquidity headwind for Bitcoin. Reserves rose back to $3.03 trillion around September 16 but dropped to $2.96 trillion last week; if they keep falling, that would weigh on Bitcoin. Caution is warranted from mid-to-late September and especially in late October, which may be the year's liquidity low, with more room for optimism toward year-end. x.com
Bitcoin may face a meaningful correction as September liquidity tests arrive, but pullbacks are chances to add, not reasons for pessimism. Oil above $100 and long-term yields above 4.8% pressure liquidity-sensitive assets, and a correction looks likely if August PPI and CPI are not clearly below expectations. The rally from August 19, driven by Treasury buybacks, pro-crypto White House signals and a major SEC shift, justifies structural optimism; June through November is an accumulation window. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.com
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com
Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin's short-term-holder exchange inflows have shifted from profit-taking toward realized losses, putting the recovery under stress. The 24-hour net profit balance swung from +10.4K BTC a week ago to -18.6K BTC, while the share of profitable hours fell from 75% to 16%. Exchange transfers are not confirmed sales; a rebound above 50% profitable hours would signal profit-taking has regained dominance. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's Coinbase Institutional withdrawals into the dip look like quiet accumulation. Whale Alert reported 648 BTC, worth about $51.9 million, moving from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, adding a different demand signal to the earlier ETF-flow case. x.com
Bitcoin faces additional selling pressure because Binance's SAFU fund has 15,000 BTC to sell to cover hack losses. That supply will also suppress its price. x.com
