Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
Harmonic is an overhyped, coordinated pump, with about 100 accounts, many named like 'XYZ Capital', exaggerating its importance and lack of competition. The claim that it is a choke point in cable internet is invented, unlike space names such as Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile that at least have a realistic thesis. Everyone hunting for unknown microcap choke points is itself a top signal, and valuations deserve a hard look. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com x.com
Vistra has become the crowded 'bottleneck' trade everyone is talking about, and such hyped names often end up dead weeks after the pump. After a sharp two-session run, the crowd's enthusiasm is the signal to step aside. x.com
Harmonic is still incredibly early in a global adoption wave: a first smaller European operator has started deploying its solutions, and the giants will have to follow given technical realities. Its cOS virtualized platform dominates the cable core, delivering multi-gigabit DOCSIS 4.0 over existing coax; per @KawzInvests, Comcast, Charter, Cox and Altice run it, with 150 customers and 45.7 million modems. Virtual OLT software opens a $2.5 billion-plus fiber market. x.com x.com
Space stocks such as Redwire and AST SpaceMobile have run too far on retail chasing and look like shorts into the SpaceX IPO. Government contracts are already priced in, and the stocks price years ahead while ignoring execution risk. The SpaceX IPO should absorb more liquidity as institutions sell the news, leaving retail holding the bag. AST SpaceMobile is the second-biggest space short after EchoStar; sell space stocks before IPO day, though the broader market can stay steady through July. … Show more
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Harmonic is the clearest pure-play winner of a multi-year cable broadband upgrade cycle driven by agentic AI and home compute pulling more bandwidth. Its cOS runs the networks of almost every major cable operator with about 95% share, and replacing it needs 18–24 months of certification, so it owns the market into 2028. Business outside its two largest customers grew 78% and is now most of bookings. Growing 43%, it trades in the low 20s on FY2027 earnings. x.com
AST SpaceMobile was a short because messianic belief in the stock priced its business and competitive risks at zero, with a valuation completely disconnected from capital employed. A failed satellite launch sent it plunging; no one could know that in advance, but asymmetry is the point: when risks are priced at zero or below, something going wrong pays off. All else equal, the higher the price, the more wrong it is; if believers pump it back to a stupid price, it is a short again. x.com x.com … Show more
