Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

No rocket or space company anywhere makes money, making the 'space is the future' investment pitch a bad bet. SpaceX is shown at -$4.9B; Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs also have negative figures, ranging from -$131.20M to -$618.76M. x.com 

Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.com 

Space and defense stocks such as Rocket Lab, Kratos and AeroVironment warrant skepticism after a big run because the sector doesn't generate profits the way other sectors do. Many of the announced deals are burdens that take a long time to execute. Excitement around Rocket Lab could return before or after its Neutron launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's valuation already more than bakes in space data centers. At a $74B market cap, over 74 times sales, Rocket Lab had better be building more than just data centers in space. This is a call on the price, not on the underlying quality of the business. x.com  x.com 

Ten listed companies span every layer of a space economy projected to nearly triple to $1.8 trillion by 2035. Rocket Lab has a $2.2B backlog, with Neutron its next catalyst and biggest execution bet. Firefly guides to $420-450M and won Golden Dome work. Iridium is the steady cash-flow name. Redwire, Intuitive Machines, Voyager and Planet Labs carry large backlogs, Satellogic hit positive operating cash flow, and Spire's defense pivot is the catalyst to watch. AST SpaceMobile is FCC-approved. … Show more

Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more

Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab completing its $1.94 billion ATM to fund the Iridium deal removes an overhang that likely suppressed the whole space sector. As the lead high-beta space name, its ATM selling in a thin, risk-off market was magnified by algos into AST SpaceMobile and peers; that pressure should now ease. After nearly four months of losses from the SpaceX IPO, macro risk-off, low summer liquidity and share sales, a base is starting to form. Delays or macro risk could still weigh. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Repeated Neutron delays undermine the premium on Rocket Lab stock when execution keeps slipping. The company does not live or die by Neutron, but 50x sales was unjustified; even at 26x 2027 sales, a legitimate price suggests another 50% decline. x.com  x.com