Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look like a good hedge against rising rates, which at some point could crash the stock market. Duration on the 20-year Treasury has come way down, so another 100 basis points higher in yields would mean about an 11% price decline, or roughly a -5% total return. That is small compared with the decline equities could suffer. x.com 

US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

Long-dated US Treasuries can generate large passive income for decades. Buying $100 million of 30-year Treasury bonds would pay about $500,000 a month for 30 years. x.com  x.com 

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could rally 20-30% over the next few years if deflation outpaces growth for a period. That would pull investors into bonds to lock in higher yields, pushing yields down, since government money printing isn't keeping up with emerging deflation. US government finances should also strengthen as growth outpaces debt, making bonds more attractive. It is a small bet that should work for a period of time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Rising bond prices and falling yields favor low-volatility and dividend stocks over higher-beta, overcrowded growth. The chart shows the high-beta/low-volatility ratio falling as long-dated Treasuries rebound, countering high beta's earlier rate-driven lead. x.com