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Deep-Tech Stock Research, ASIC Background at Synopsys
Certara could become pivotal for drug discovery as the FDA asks for simulations from its software, an insight its earnings confirmed, though it is still early. The stock was hit hard by management changes, including the CFO's departure, and growth is only paltry, but the chart looks strong. @adudetrading likes its positioning as software becomes most of the business but notes guidance offered little hope. x.com x.com x.com
Biotech tools stocks such as Charles River and Illumina are in a narrative-driven mania while their fundamentals haven't really moved. Charles River is ripping after reaffirming guidance for negative revenue growth this year. Illumina hasn't grown in five years, yet trades at over 50x earnings and 35x EV/EBITDA, with merely fine margins. Five straight years of easier comparisons are being sold as a coiled spring. x.com x.com x.com
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Certara and Simulations Plus may struggle to keep strong pricing power as AI gets very good at building, refining and autonomously running mechanistic drug-development models. Simulation-driven drug development matters more with AI, but AI and mechanistic modeling will not stay separate layers. Their moat is parameterization, not formulas largely in academic literature, and their main customers, big pharma companies, increasingly have the data, compute and AI tools to bring that work in-house. … Show more
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
Tempus AI could be a picks-and-shovels play on AI pharma, since its data was reportedly used in Moderna's cancer cure development process. It is a speculative holding: whether the company is legitimate is hard to tell. x.com
AI-enabled drug discovery is the next re-rate, because if AI raises lab hit rates, the cost of failure falls across the sector and beaten-down platforms re-rate first. Recursion is the cleanest expression, an AI-first platform built to industrialize discovery. AbCellera and Tempus apply AI to antibody discovery and the diagnostics data layer, with real revenue under the story. The trap is paying a winner's multiple before the trial proves the winner. x.com
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is a strong candidate to become a next-generation trillion-dollar company, as a drug factory that designs itself. Tomorrow's trillion-dollar companies are learning to read and write biology. x.com
