AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com  … Show more

AI-enabled drug discovery is the next re-rate, because if AI raises lab hit rates, the cost of failure falls across the sector and beaten-down platforms re-rate first. Recursion is the cleanest expression, an AI-first platform built to industrialize discovery. AbCellera and Tempus apply AI to antibody discovery and the diagnostics data layer, with real revenue under the story. The trap is paying a winner's multiple before the trial proves the winner. x.com 

Certara could become pivotal for drug discovery as the FDA asks for simulations from its software, an insight its earnings confirmed, though it is still early. The stock was hit hard by management changes, including the CFO's departure, and growth is only paltry, but the chart looks strong. @adudetrading likes its positioning as software becomes most of the business but notes guidance offered little hope. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Pure-play AI drug discovery names, including Recursion, Schrödinger, Relay Therapeutics, Absci and Tempus AI, look well positioned as a basket. x.com 

Pharma, biotech and genomics stocks could benefit as frontier AI accelerates drug design, which may help explain the health sector's recent strength. Anthropic's Mythos 5 sped up parts of its protein design work about 10x, proposed an E. coli binding mechanism later validated by an outside lab, and beat purpose-built models on AAV gene therapy predictions. Biology capabilities appear restricted and Anthropic plans its own drugs, so the gain depends on pharma eventually adopting such models. … Show more

WuXi AppTec is the answer to AI-driven biotech because clinical trials become the bottleneck. AI gene screening will add more precise drug pipelines, but every drug must still pass trials, which take 65% of R&D costs including failures and over 90% for a single drug. Patient recruitment in China costs about 5% of the US level and takes a third of the time, with phase 1 trials taking 7 months versus 2 years, giving China-based clinical providers a cost advantage. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com