Berkshire Hathaway benefits from a flight to low-beta quality stocks that are not burdening themselves with AI debt. Its shares are up 10% in October, while three of its largest holdings, Apple, Coca-Cola and Chevron, have been surging. Boring pays. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is not a company to bet against after a strong Q2. Investment gains nearly tripled year over year, from $6.36B to $16B, net income more than doubled, and buybacks jumped from under $300M last quarter to $4.5B. x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway's recent bets show impressive mental dexterity, but they are still small dollars for a company its size. It bought Alphabet above its long-term average multiple, at more than twice its price of a year earlier, perhaps the highest multiple Berkshire has paid for an investment that size, apparently betting on good returns from roughly $200B of growing AI capex. It also bought Delta despite Buffett calling airlines a mistake after COVID. x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is an attractive hedge against speculative holdings because its fortress balance sheet gives it optionality either way. If markets do well, it cruises with existing assets and collects yield on its cash. If markets drop, it can buy the dip like no other. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway's $4.5 billion buyback is a valuation signal that its shares trade below intrinsic value. Berkshire repurchases only when management believes that, and it had bought none for six quarters; insiders who wrote the intrinsic-value rulebook buying again says more than any multiple. @VistaSharesX adds that Q2 also saw the cash pile fall and Berkshire turn net buyer of stocks, the first quarter that looks like Greg Abel's. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway offers no edge over simply owning the S&P 500. Its supposed defensiveness does not hold up, since both fell over 50% in the financial crisis and over 30% in 2020. Investors worried about a recession can keep some cash themselves rather than rely on Berkshire's cash pile. x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway's return to net stock buying makes bearishness hard to justify. It beat earnings, repurchased $4.5B of its own shares and was a net buyer of about $20B in stocks, ending 14 straight quarters of net selling. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is hard to call expensive: about $400B of cash and $300B of stocks mean a roughly $1T valuation pays only about $300B for the railroad, energy, insurance and operating businesses. Its insurance float is a massively underestimated source of cheap capital, and the cash is a call option on future chaos, letting it write huge checks when markets panic. Greg Abel understands its culture. Whitney Tilson, quoted via @kejca, expects it to beat the S&P 500 over five years. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Berkshire Hathaway's capital allocation has changed for the worse under new leadership, as its $8.5B all-cash Taylor Morrison acquisition buys a homebuilder just as home prices reverse, new homes lose their premium and goods and commodity inflation takes off. Its large Alphabet stake looks similarly unwise. x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway is a hedge against the market in current conditions, not a vehicle to beat it, which explains its nearly $400B in cash and treasuries. x.com