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Berkshire Hathaway's return to net stock buying makes bearishness hard to justify. It beat earnings, repurchased $4.5B of its own shares and was a net buyer of about $20B in stocks, ending 14 straight quarters of net selling. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway benefits from a flight to low-beta quality stocks that are not burdening themselves with AI debt. Its shares are up 10% in October, while three of its largest holdings, Apple, Coca-Cola and Chevron, have been surging. Boring pays. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway offers no edge over simply owning the S&P 500. Its supposed defensiveness does not hold up, since both fell over 50% in the financial crisis and over 30% in 2020. Investors worried about a recession can keep some cash themselves rather than rely on Berkshire's cash pile. x.com x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway's $4.5 billion buyback is a valuation signal that its shares trade below intrinsic value. Berkshire repurchases only when management believes that, and it had bought none for six quarters; insiders who wrote the intrinsic-value rulebook buying again says more than any multiple. @VistaSharesX adds that Q2 also saw the cash pile fall and Berkshire turn net buyer of stocks, the first quarter that looks like Greg Abel's. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway is worth accumulating because its insurance float and $324.9B Treasury bill pile pay it to wait for an opportunity, so higher rates bring income and leverage over whoever runs out of cash first. It passes the Second Paycheck Test at unmatched scale, with $177.5B of float. Rate gains alone are small, about $642M after tax per quarter point, and GEICO's underwriting profit fell 45%. Management bought about $4.5B of stock near 1.4x book; at 1.48x, accumulate, don't chase. x.com … Show more
Berkshire Hathaway risks another five years of returns decimated by big tech, which is too strong. Greg Abel should study Jensen Huang every day, or it will come at great cost to shareholders. Berkshire is more than an insurance company now, and missing Google and Amazon, which it has acknowledged as mistakes, was bad in the long run, not just the short run. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway is starting a breakout as the summer rotation out of tech into value begins, and its record cash pile was a loaded gun waiting for this moment. After two years going sideways, the chart is coiled at the top of a five-year run. Rotation is a healthy breather before the next leg: value leads through October while tech rests, then both push together toward the S&P 500 at 10,000 and Nasdaq 100 at 40,000 by 2028. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway is a hedge against the market in current conditions, not a vehicle to beat it, which explains its nearly $400B in cash and treasuries. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway's recent bets show impressive mental dexterity, but they are still small dollars for a company its size. It bought Alphabet above its long-term average multiple, at more than twice its price of a year earlier, perhaps the highest multiple Berkshire has paid for an investment that size, apparently betting on good returns from roughly $200B of growing AI capex. It also bought Delta despite Buffett calling airlines a mistake after COVID. x.com x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway is built for long-term survival rather than maximum returns, earning a Risk Shield rating of 95/100 that puts it in the top 5% of stocks globally. Growth is average and quality only slightly above average, but the balance sheet holds a record $397 billion of cash, 31% of total assets, with negative net debt, low beta and low volatility. x.comÂ