PlanOptik sits upstream of Lumentum's optical circuit switch supply chain, a link the market is only starting to price. Silex research materials and patent language directly mention PlanOptik as a glass wafer substrate supplier, and Silex, the leading pure-play MEMS foundry, is a key optical-switch supplier to Lumentum. That puts a €50M-market-cap German glass wafer maker in the middle of the AI data center buildout. Credit to @vlmkapital for the finding. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' possible 2028 revenue makes even a 100% takeover premium too small if it delivers on 2027-28 expectations. Revenue of $6-8B in calendar 2028 at an illustrative 8x multiple would imply about $56B in market value, versus $7B today. That is the upside worth holding out for. x.com 

Plan Optik is not a buyable way into glass substrates for AI chip packaging, even as a leading glass wafer maker serving Infineon, Samsung and Bosch. With €11 million of annual revenue and extreme illiquidity, it is closer to an acquisition bet than a position that can be built normally, and a 90% one-day move without fundamental news is not a buy signal. Glass substrates' option value is real but arrives in 2027-2028; 2026 is a qualification year with lower yields and 2-3x higher costs. x.com 

Planoptik's capacity ramp sets up a strong 2027, though it is not an AI story. Order intake rose 145% as it ramps wafer production at cleanrooms in Hungary and Germany, and management expects new customers' series ramps to lift revenue significantly from 2027. Revenue grew 5.7% and EBITDA 8.9%, at about 22x LTM EV/EBITDA, with FY26 guidance below 10% growth. Heavy capex should now show in revenue and margins. The new customers are in microfluidics, with no evidence of an optical-switch benefit. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics looks undervalued if its capacity converts into the modeled revenue ramp. From disclosed capacity, quarterly revenue could rise from $858M in Q1 2027 to $1.89B in Q4 and $2.14B in Q1 2028, against a $6.8B market cap. A $7.5B annualized exit rate in 2027 at 40% gross margins would make an unchanged valuation surprising. Lumentum's capacity agreements into 2030-31 suggest demand may last beyond 2027-28, but execution risk remains. x.com 

PlanOptik's latest report is likely its last transition report, with a very different company emerging as capacity ramps. Expectations are high for 2027 component launches showing what it can do with silicon, not just glass, followed by glass core substrates. Progress is already hidden in the numbers: automotive MEMS and sensors, historically most of revenue and weak, are holding. @KairosPraxis notes revenue grew 5.7% and EBITDA 8.9%, with heavy recent capex set to lift revenue and margins. … Show more

Plan Optik's revenue has not yet grown with Lumentum's because Lumentum is currently growing through pluggable optics, while Plan Optik supplies co-packaged optics. Its payoff is therefore more of a 2027-2028 story. x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

IQE is priced for skepticism it no longer deserves, while Sivers Semiconductors is priced for perfection it has not delivered, though both sit in the same AI optical chain. Sivers trades at about 85x sales with negative EBITDA, and Q1 revenue missed. IQE trades near 4-5x sales, is EBITDA positive, guides 20%+ growth to at least £117M in 2026, has cleared bank debt with MACOM's backing, and trades far below peer LandMark at about 70x forward. Sivers is worth revisiting only if its price resets. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics' operating leverage could be substantial if 800G scales and 1.6T follows, and the market may be underestimating its laser opportunity. 800G volumes are ramping with a major hyperscaler, its backlog more than doubled after $124 million of new orders, and US manufacturing adds a potential tailwind. About 15% short interest and recent dilution add uncertainty to this smaller, more volatile optics play. x.com