PepsiCo faces a permanent headwind from GLP-1 drugs, which it has already said are affecting its business, as are alcohol companies. A post the author replies to expects fast food and snacking to be hit hard. x.comÂ
Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
PepsiCo faces a death spiral as GLP-1 drugs shrink snack volumes while it raises prices. Per @wallstengine, citing Bloomberg, PepsiCo plans to lift prices on select chips, soda and dips by year-end or early 2027, months after cutting snack prices by up to 15% to revive demand. North American food revenue fell 2% last quarter on flat volumes. Less volume and higher prices together will destroy the snack companies. x.comÂ
PepsiCo is under pressure because consumers can no longer really afford a can of soda, as the company cut its profit outlook citing a slower North American recovery. The stock is approaching its monthly 200-period moving average, a secular bear-market line that breaks only during economic depressions. If it breaks, $75 is the next level. x.comÂ
PepsiCo stock looks preferable to Coca-Cola here, though neither has matched former Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi's leadership. Pepsi CEO Ramon Laguarta has had eight years to perform and cannot blame GLP-1 drugs alone; Coke's James Quincey was unappealing from the start, while the view on his successor remains undecided. x.comÂ
PepsiCo's forecast for another year of just 3% growth leaves it nowhere close to cheap. It trades at 16 times 2027 earnings. x.comÂ
Coca-Cola looks like a great funding short, since nothing makes it immune to the risks that battered its staples peers. GLP-1 drugs, store brands, new entrants and supply-chain inflation should hit it too, and non-sugar drinks only slow the U.S. decline, though international has held up better. About 2% revenue growth is thin support for 25x earnings while peers sit at 2008 valuations; it could fall to 15x unless the other staples rebound dramatically. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
PepsiCo is an easy buy for a long-term dividend portfolio because its diversified brands can adapt to shifting health trends. Gatorade, soda, snacks and energy drinks are categories people will never stop consuming, and the recent Poppi purchase shows that adaptability, making PepsiCo preferable even to McDonald's. @TheRonnieVShow notes the stock sits on a 17-year trendline that has held since 2009. x.com x.comÂ
PepsiCo looks unattractive because, since Covid, supermarket sections where shoppers used to load up on its products have looked empty. The bearish view dates back to 2021. x.comÂ
McDonald's lacks pricing power, leaving it exposed as food supply and prices look set to become a major issue in 2027. Fast-food chains are price takers on the supply side with products that carry little pricing power, and their downtrend roughly coincided with GLP-1 drugs going mainstream. Without GLP-1s, companies like McDonald's would be worth bidding up aggressively now. x.com x.comÂ
Insider buying points to opportunity in PepsiCo shares despite the market's pessimism. Former PepsiAmericas CEO Robert Pohlad spent $23.7 million on the stock during its deepest drawdown since the 2008 financial crisis. x.comÂ
General Mills will struggle to raise prices or grow as GLP-1 drugs and inflation push shoppers toward store brands and away from cereals. It has two years of negative EPS growth and estimates, and its operating cash flow and margins should suffer in that environment. The company does produce cash and is cheap, as @calvinfroedge notes with $2-3B of annual operating cash flow and a shareholder yield above 10%. x.com x.comÂ