Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
PepsiCo faces a death spiral as GLP-1 drugs shrink snack volumes while it raises prices. Per @wallstengine, citing Bloomberg, PepsiCo plans to lift prices on select chips, soda and dips by year-end or early 2027, months after cutting snack prices by up to 15% to revive demand. North American food revenue fell 2% last quarter on flat volumes. Less volume and higher prices together will destroy the snack companies. x.comÂ
PepsiCo is under pressure because consumers can no longer really afford a can of soda, as the company cut its profit outlook citing a slower North American recovery. The stock is approaching its monthly 200-period moving average, a secular bear-market line that breaks only during economic depressions. If it breaks, $75 is the next level. x.comÂ
PepsiCo faces a permanent headwind from GLP-1 drugs, which it has already said are affecting its business, as are alcohol companies. A post the author replies to expects fast food and snacking to be hit hard. x.comÂ
Insider buying points to opportunity in PepsiCo shares despite the market's pessimism. Former PepsiAmericas CEO Robert Pohlad spent $23.7 million on the stock during its deepest drawdown since the 2008 financial crisis. x.comÂ
PepsiCo's forecast for another year of just 3% growth leaves it nowhere close to cheap. It trades at 16 times 2027 earnings. x.comÂ
PepsiCo looks unattractive because, since Covid, supermarket sections where shoppers used to load up on its products have looked empty. The bearish view dates back to 2021. x.comÂ
Director Robert Pohlad's $23.7 million open-market share purchase bolsters PepsiCo's risk/reward case. Buying this very solid company near its 200-month moving average looks like a solid setup. x.comÂ
Coca-Cola looks like a great funding short, since nothing makes it immune to the risks that battered its staples peers. GLP-1 drugs, store brands, new entrants and supply-chain inflation should hit it too, and non-sugar drinks only slow the U.S. decline, though international has held up better. About 2% revenue growth is thin support for 25x earnings while peers sit at 2008 valuations; it could fall to 15x unless the other staples rebound dramatically. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
General Mills will struggle to raise prices or grow as GLP-1 drugs and inflation push shoppers toward store brands and away from cereals. It has two years of negative EPS growth and estimates, and its operating cash flow and margins should suffer in that environment. The company does produce cash and is cheap, as @calvinfroedge notes with $2-3B of annual operating cash flow and a shareholder yield above 10%. x.com x.comÂ
PepsiCo offers a share-price recovery bet as international growth continues and North American demand has room to improve. It owns Pepsi, Lay's, Doritos and Gatorade; Q2 revenue rose 6.4% to $24.2 billion, international beverages organic revenue grew 9%, and management still expects 5-7% core EPS growth in 2026. The recovery still has to happen, as North American beverage volume fell 4% last quarter. x.comÂ
Celsius is priced as if its story is over when the business is intact, setting up a 3x-4.3x return by 2030. At $28 and a $7.67B market cap, it has $2.97B of trailing revenue, expanding 12% net margins and $323M of free cash flow; its one bad year, 2024, came from a PepsiCo inventory flush unrelated to consumer demand. With 20% annual growth, single-digit international penetration and margins reaching 15%, 2030 EPS of $4.08 at 20-30x gives $82-122 a share. x.comÂ
