Waterworld Capital
Public Markets Commentary
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
South American political unpredictability keeps investors from rewarding MercadoLibre's excellent fundamentals. Today's selloff illustrates that risk, despite the strength of the business. x.com x.comÂ
Brazil's political developments have driven a selloff that makes MercadoLibre a dip opportunity. MELI is down 11% amid the market's reaction. x.comÂ
Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sea Limited's Shopee is consolidating its Brazilian e-commerce position while delivery costs per order are falling. Shopee has 19.8% of Brazilian GMV, second to MercadoLibre's 40.5%; the cost figures back management's comments, though Shopee's Brazil-specific figures are harder to isolate. x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's business results should begin inflecting as credit portfolio growth slows now that the book has reached scale. An excellent outcome in Brazil improves the economic backdrop, and the stock sat at the technical bottom of its consolidation wedge. The economic backdrop, forward results and technicals all look very bullish. x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre ranks C tier among large-cap tech after Q1 earnings because margin contraction and heavy investment are pressuring its free cash flow outlook. Its top line keeps growing, but there are no AI tailwinds to offset the drag from logistics and credit spending into 2027. The ranking weights forward visibility and AI exposure, placing MercadoLibre alongside Apple and below names like Alphabet, AMD and Amazon, despite once being very bullish on it. x.comÂ
Crowded Brazil and EWZ longs are exposed after Lula's surprise election win, as reported by negligible_cap. MercadoLibre and many others are going to get absolutely nuked tomorrow. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's Brazilian marketplace lead continues to consolidate while delivery costs per order are falling. Its GMV share is 40.5%, against Shopee's 19.8% and Amazon's 11.7%; Amazon is slightly losing share. The numbers also back the company's comments on lower delivery costs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre can tread water for a long time because it constantly has to spend to defend its revenue base. It is a very capital-intensive business trading at more than 40x forward earnings, leaving it vulnerable if revenue ever slows. x.comÂ