Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazil's political developments have driven a selloff that makes MercadoLibre a dip opportunity. MELI is down 11% amid the market's reaction. x.com 

Crowded Brazil and EWZ longs are exposed after Lula's surprise election win, as reported by negligible_cap. MercadoLibre and many others are going to get absolutely nuked tomorrow. x.com 

MercadoLibre is a short because credit is deteriorating in its finance business and e-commerce competition in Brazil is pressuring margins, while it trades at a huge premium to anything comparable. x.com  x.com 

Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.com 

MercadoLibre is a broken stock without a catalyst, and being cheap is not enough to recover. Since AI arrived it has badly underperformed, and no one knows whether AI agents buying from the cheapest source will bypass marketplaces within two or three years. Many holders still call it an obvious bargain, as they did near $1,900, a sign they have not capitulated; real bottoms come with exhaustion and disbelief. A turnaround, new information or an earnings change would be needed to change that. … Show more

MercadoLibre falls into the disliked software sector despite being a big platform with fintech, and there are many hungry Latin Americans who want to use AI to build software too. x.com 

MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings have massive runways and have thrived across political backdrops, so they do not need tax cuts or deregulation to keep winning. Both have performed extremely well in Brazil under Lula since 2023, even in a fragile macro backdrop. The election-driven selloff left these cream-of-the-crop businesses at lower multiples, and more near-term selloffs are possible. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Lula's fourth mandate has dealt Brazilian equities a political shock, with a risk of deeper losses after the initial selloff. EWZ fell about 18% overnight and 27% by morning; the intraday recovery does not settle what comes next, given the much deeper falls after Argentina's 2019 primary-election shock. x.com  x.com  x.com