Eric Jhonsa
Technology Portfolio Manager at Dutch Asset
Samsung Electronics preferred shares look mispriced at a record 35% discount to the common, when fundamentally they are nearly the same thing. They realistically pay the same dividend and lack only voting rights and some liquidity, which matters little unless you are a very large holder. The gap likely reflects funds, ETFs and retail chasing the common stock while many investors don't know the preferred exists. x.com x.com
Samsung Electronics' history of compounding tangible equity suggests reinvested profits can add to the preferred shares' value alongside dividends. Tangible equity rose 65% in 2016-21 without the AI trade and over 250% in 2016-26. The preferred usually trades 25-30% below common despite the same economics. The case needs good 2027-28 earnings, dividends under the 50%-of-FCF return goal, and foundry and other projects not to become money pits; eight years of current profits is unlikely. x.com
Samsung's preliminary Q3 points to the most profitable GAAP quarter ever, yet the stock trades at about 3.5x 2027 EPS. Preliminary Q3 revenue is about $145 billion with operating profit near $80 billion. If revenue grows 8% and net income 12% quarter over quarter for 5+ quarters as expected, Q3 2027 net income could top $105-110 billion. Samsung could earn its whole market cap in net income from 2026 to 2030, and heavy buybacks could lift EPS growth to a 40-50% CAGR. Final numbers are still due. … Show more
Samsung Electronics' stock should eventually catch up to earnings given how cheap it and other memory names are. Samsung raised operating profit 19x and overtook Nvidia as the world's most profitable company, yet the stock fell 5.82%. The only bubble-like risk is heavy leverage in Korea, where investors' appetite for risk remains strong. x.com x.com
Samsung Electronics faces downside risk because its parabolic run has made market expectations unrealistic, so one mistake could release gravity. Wall Street Engine's Q3 highlights showed revenue, operating profit and net profit below estimates despite triple-digit year-over-year growth. x.com
Samsung Electronics' roughly KRW 30 trillion Q3 cash dividend is already priced in and short of the KRW 40 trillion-plus it should have returned, so it is likely to become a profit-taking event. Even this payout eats into mid- to long-term growth drivers, and without a stronger catalyst, selling is the likely outcome. Per @Xgngu12, further shareholder-return policies are not due until January. x.com x.com
Samsung Electronics has reportedly prepared several large shareholder-return plans and submitted them to major shareholders for feedback, per a friend at a foreign bank. Three big announcements could follow in the coming months, so shorts should be careful. x.com
Samsung's 7.7% drop on the greatest quarterly profit in tech history shows the AI trade has run out of buyers at these levels. Profit was ₩89.4 trillion ($58.4 billion), up 1,810%, yet the stock is down 23.74% from its peak in just 15 days. The numbers had been anticipated for months, so once they confirmed expectations nobody was left to buy, the mark of a fully priced market. x.com
Memory makers Micron, SK hynix and Samsung are returning cash to shareholders instead of building new capacity, which keeps memory supply constrained for longer. With their stocks falling, the leaders have less incentive to add supply, a reflexive loop that supports pricing. x.com x.com
Samsung Electronics is ridiculously undervalued given that it sells more NAND than SanDisk and Kioxia combined. NAND alone is worth about half its market cap, so adding its DDR business makes it a much cheaper company on a lower multiple. @insane_analyst notes it is the only one of its peers with an internal logic foundry, logic design group, silicon photonics node and CPO group. x.com x.com