Wayne Liang
Asymmetric Investment Research, Trade Alerts & Toolkits
The memory supercycle for Micron, Sandisk and SK hynix keeps getting validated as scarce memory reprices the entire AI stack. Nvidia is raising prices about 15%, including on Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips, after Apple blamed memory for weak guidance, and with a $1T order book nobody is cancelling. Earnings this week could drive heavy rotation back into semis. x.comÂ
Memory is becoming less cyclical as an actual supply shortage takes hold, which should favor leaders Micron and SanDisk, specialty proxy Everspin and memory stocks broadly. If SK Hynix builds a fab in Japan, as Hankyoreh reports, the US should double down on domestic memory names like Micron and SanDisk, since it wants American-made memory as strategic infrastructure; that would lift smaller specialty names like Everspin too. x.com x.comÂ
Micron and SK hynix pricing in a memory shortage past 2030 extends the memory-cycle case beyond the Street's 2028 expectation. SK hynix's record quarter adds evidence: per Wall St Engine, revenue rose 328% to $78.9B, operating profit rose 632% to $62.8B, and operating margin hit 80%. Agentic and physical AI could add demand as they roll out. x.com x.comÂ
High-bandwidth memory supply may not keep pace with AI demand, supporting the memory makers. Anthropic's S-1 says SK hynix, Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, but warns that large buyers or competitors could reserve much of the available output. x.comÂ
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
Agentic AI's repeated context favors cache memory and storage demand for Micron, SK hynix and Sandisk over fresh GPU computation. Per @demian_ai, about 95% of input tokens for DeepSeek V4.1 Flash on OpenRouter were cache hits; storage matters unless routing and caching keep almost everything in GPU memory. New products such as 3D DRAM and HBM-on-logic could be the final trigger for a full memory-stock re-rating. x.com x.comÂ
A memory-chip shortage lasting until 2030 is good for Nvidia. SK hynix expects that shortage and reports a 632% profit jump. x.comÂ
SK hynix and other Korean memory makers' aggressive price hikes invite customers to optimize memory use, undermining the case for 90% margins despite a long-term shortage. Memory is the only layer raising cost per token. Elon Musk described Micron's future pricing as reasonable and other suppliers' as extortionate, warning that today's customers would not forget; exorbitant long-term contracts compound that risk. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's ordinary memory could see tighter supply because HBM consumes far more factory capacity than conventional DRAM. Meeting AI demand could thus extend Micron's opportunity beyond AI memory. x.comÂ
Micron and Sandisk are setting the price on Nvidia's growth ceiling, since memory supply, not demand, now limits Nvidia. Nvidia guided about 70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth, calling the outlook supply constrained, after Q2 revenue of $96 billion. CFO Colette Kress said memory prices face extreme conditions, already above prior expectations and headed higher next year, and Nvidia guided Q4 gross margin down to 71-72% from 75% on memory costs. x.comÂ
Chinese memory makers YMTC and CXMT are using the AI-driven shortage to build a bigger competitive threat to Micron, Samsung and SK hynix. Per DigiTimes, both are scaling capacity with state backing to gain share; they are making inroads in PCs, and CXMT reportedly plans to ramp HBM3 later this year. The worst shortages ever seen have lifted prices only temporarily. Legacy DRAM makers face demand and supply pressure, and the market will eventually discount a far more competitive market. x.comÂ
A worsening memory shortage in 2027 could favor Micron, SanDisk and SK hynix as AI stocks. Samsung warns that the shortage will worsen then. x.comÂ
