Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Cerebras is a poor bet after spiking from its $185 IPO open into the $300s. Some 55-65% of IPOs trade below their offer price after a year, and the jump makes those odds even worse. The valuation was already extremely rich and depends on future growth going well with great execution from management. x.comÂ
Cerebras still needs to come down further before it is worth buying. IPO stocks often rise sharply at first, then fall, and can take a long time to return to their original value, so entering at an expensive price right after the IPO is unappealing. The view is not entirely negative on Cerebras, and it should not be called a direct Nvidia rival. x.comÂ
Cerebras likely needs more time despite heavy bullishness around its earnings and a nice breakout on its recent-IPO chart. Last quarter's earnings disappointed, so a sudden blowout quarter was unlikely. x.comÂ
Cerebras is now worth buying after its shares fell into the previously stated $60-$120 buying range. The earlier concern was an out-of-control valuation and providing liquidity to insiders at much higher prices; the shares shown are about $117. x.comÂ
Cerebras has fallen more than 50% from its IPO highs, like every other hot deal, and its investor event did not deliver the news longs wanted. FOMO buying into the IPO proved deadly. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras Systems is overpriced by retail buyers at around $400 a share, about 2.16 times its $185 IPO price. That price was set by the investment banks, management and institutional analysts, who know the business best, after the roadshow. x.comÂ
Cerebras and its customers likely accounted for many of the chip limitations alleged in the short report, so the report may be wrong. This is a suspicion without specific insight. Short interest rose 40.7% into the report to 19.86 million shares, or 8.4% of float. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras risks falling further if the market takes a breather, because stocks that IPO in a red-hot bull market tend to get bid far above fair value and then drop precipitously, as Arm's IPO showed; Cerebras has already fallen some. Investors upset about missing an allocation should remember this, echoing @ram's point, relayed by @dee_bosa, that every stock gets back to its IPO price. x.comÂ
Cerebras is wildly overvalued after opening its debut up 102%, at about 157.8x sales. FY25 revenue was $510M against 215.23M shares outstanding, and its $150M net income was not related to its core business. Late buyers risk becoming bag holders. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras may be the only company willing to stitch together a true high-speed solution. If so, it retains upside optionality from high-speed pricing and gains a first-mover advantage. x.com x.comÂ
Cerebras is difficult for retail investors to understand, and management has not done a great job explaining its business since going public. It deserves more attention as the most direct AI IPO of 2026, but going long Cerebras is hard to justify when Nvidia can be owned instead. x.comÂ
