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Rittenhouse Research

AI Infrastructure, Data Centers, Neoclouds, Software & Fintech Research

23 Oct, 22:02Latest

Rising GPU rental rates and Anthropic's compute margins challenge claims of collapsing demand for CoreWeave's capacity. The WSJ reported Anthropic's first-half revenue of $16.3B against $9B in compute and infrastructure spending; Bloomberg reported its Q3 compute margin above 40%. Long contracts and fully amortizing loans cushion demand declines but cap upside. Despite the challenging neocloud model, CoreWeave's risk/reward is by far the best and its quality well ahead of peers. x.com x.com x.com

CRWV

22 Oct, 17:53

CoreWeave's existing contracts should generate enough project EBITDA to repay the debt needed to deliver them. Estimated capex for $103.7B of RPO is closer to $20B than $48B, leaving roughly $55B of debt against over $75B of project EBITDA at about 75% margins, plus over $1B of annual cash SG&A. More than 90% of its business has no debt-dependent renewal risk; DDTL 5.5 is an exception. Repayment assumes customers pay under their contracts. x.com

CRWV

Cole

Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal

20 Oct

NBIS

APLD

CRWV

Compute rental can produce operating profits, validating the neocloud case for CoreWeave, Nebius and Applied Digital. SPCX's reported data point counters last week's CoreWeave-Anthropic hit piece on AI demand. x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

19 Oct

CRWV

Improving per-MW pricing, falling cost of capital and stronger-than-expected demand from Anthropic and OpenAI make CoreWeave one of three absolute favorite stocks on a massive sale. Its short-term deals can command 3-4 times the pricing of long-term contracts. x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

25 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

IREN

Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Just a Dude Who Invests

Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary

18 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's growing backlog, active power and GPU pricing make its declining shares look cheaper, though debt and customer cancellations remain risks. Blossom reports backlog rose from $99B to $129.2B, active power from 1GW to 1.5GW and GPU-offering prices by 25%. Its debt burden remains a valid concern. Unusual Whales reports Microsoft pulled out of an Nscale deal, illustrating the risk of hyperscalers leaving neocloud contracts. x.com x.com x.com

Ren

Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks

28 Oct

AI funding is easing as lower credit-insurance costs could reopen funding. CoreWeave CDS fell to ~1,040bp from above 1,100bp; Oracle says growth should fund itself from FY29. Google kept its $195–205B 2026 capex guide, expects more in 2027 and is renting third-party compute despite margin headwinds, supporting Nebius and CoreWeave pricing power. Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated to 48%, while Meta and Microsoft credit spreads eased. A bigger rally needs further credit easing. x.com x.com … Show more

Sergey

Growth Investor, Author of Compounding Your Wealth

26 Oct

HUT

CoreWeave's heavy debt and negative free cash flow heighten the risk that neocloud contract growth will not fund expansion. It has $104.2B in backlog against $35.6B in debt and negative $5.74B quarterly free cash flow; Nebius has over $40B in contracts but $5.7B quarterly capex and customer-concentration risk. DigitalOcean's diversified cloud model reduces reliance on debt-funded GPU expansion, while TeraWulf avoids direct GPU depreciation but faces capital-intensive construction. x.com

Chris

Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups

26 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com

degentrading

Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO

28 Oct

NBIS

CRWV

Neoclouds can reprice higher only if financing constraints halt smaller rivals' buildouts, leaving CoreWeave and Nebius as survivors. CoreWeave CDS has seen its highs and its debt has repriced upward; a business that might fail in four years is different from one that must fail now. Ant's S-1 confirms that serving inference is extremely profitable. x.com

Charlie Garcia

Founder & Managing Partner of R360, Entrepreneur/Author, Veteran

17 Oct

CRWV

CoreWeave's leveraged AI build-out is vulnerable to rising financing costs, even if demand for AI is real. Five-year default protection reached a record 1,194.5 basis points, up from 452 in June, contradicting Jensen Huang's claim that its cost of capital is falling. Nvidia owns about 10% of CoreWeave and sells it chips, so its reassurance is not an independent credit assessment. Hot inflation and the bond market, not the war, drove Wednesday's selloff. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

27 Oct

AI agents' productivity over human labor should lift GPU demand and rates for neoclouds. The bottom looks in for CoreWeave, Nebius, Boost Run, Sharon AI and IREN. Gavin Baker says token prices can fall as revenue per GPU rises; paraphrasing Elon, even $38 per GPU-hour can pay off. CoreWeave's five-year fixed contracts may lag current rates; Boost Run has less capacity locked in. If SpaceX takes more growth, slower cash burn could rerate neoclouds, though smaller customers may pay less. x.com … Show more

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