Nanya Technology will smash earnings expectations next week, and its drop on a capital raise is a highly asymmetric buying opportunity. SanDisk, SK Hynix and Cisco investing $2 billion in Nanya says everything about its prospects. x.comÂ
Asymmetric Bets
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Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.comÂ
Nanya Technology is a weaker memory name than SK hynix, SanDisk or Micron because it is more concentrated in legacy DRAM, and this year's capex may strain its balance sheet down the line. It has gained only about 35%, a laggard in memory. By contrast, SK hynix and Samsung at about 5.3x and 5.9x forward earnings look like generational compounders, as forecasts point to persistent supply deficits through 2027-2030. x.comÂ
SK hynix's 'insane' earnings set up a sharp move higher in the shares. x.comÂ
SanDisk's gross-margin plateau signals long-term discipline, not the cycle peak bears fear. Not squeezing customers, plus balanced capex under its NBM long-term agreement model, avoids overinvesting at the top. Investors should watch volume, not price: while big tech keeps spending and compute stays scarce, memory shortages cannot ease alone, so rising volume and the LTA price floor should grow the profit pool enormously. With buybacks, memory should rerate as essential AI infrastructure. x.comÂ
Growth and recovery prospects make these ten stocks look inexpensive below 20x forward earnings. SK hynix, Micron and Sandisk benefit from memory and storage demand; Vistra from electricity demand; Oracle and Nvidia from AI infrastructure; Nu from banking growth and Uber from cash generation. Novo Nordisk's improving execution could make 12x attractive despite pricing pressure. Onsemi's recovery could run further as AI power efficiency matters more. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
The memory supercycle has years left, with the shortage modeled through 2028 because AI data centers need memory as much as GPUs. 2026 NAND demand is growing 20-22% against supply growth of 15-17%. Sandisk guided Q3 revenue to $4.4-4.8B, and its gross margin rose from 26% to 67% in twelve months. Its High Bandwidth Flash, co-developed with SK hynix and targeting 8-16x HBM's capacity at a fraction of the cost, would reprice the whole company again if it ships in H2 2026. x.comÂ
Sandisk could be the memory supercycle's biggest winner because long-term NAND contracts may make earnings more durable than in past cycles. About $93.9 billion of floor-priced deals cover half of expected FY27 bit shipments and two-thirds in FY28 amid rising AI storage demand. Floors do not guarantee margins; management's roughly 50% adjusted free cash flow margin target for FY28-30 is not reported cash flow. Profitable contracts and sustainable cash generation could support a higher multiple. … Show more
Micron's earnings beat is very bullish for other memory makers, especially SanDisk and SK hynix. x.comÂ
Semiconductor and memory stocks still look cheap despite the panic on forward earnings and growth-adjusted valuations. SK hynix trades at 4.4x forward earnings with a 0.04 PEG, Micron at 4.6x and 0.11, Sandisk at 5.5x and 0.10, and Nvidia at 14.2x and 0.22; the table extends across chipmakers and suppliers. Some of these figures may reflect peak earnings. x.com x.comÂ