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Kyle Reidhead

CEO & Analyst of Milk Road/Milk Road AI

27 Oct, 18:00Latest

SpaceX's compute buildout looks undercounted because Deutsche Bank models signed IT-load leases, excluding Grok's internal use and facility overhead. DB's 4.5GW upside case is about 6.5GW on Musk's nameplate basis, versus his 13GW end-2027 guidance; SpaceX could reach close to 6GW by end-Q1. DB's $216B 2027 compute exit ARR upside is below the $238B bear case, with near $500B expected, perhaps more. Per DB, vertical integration puts build cost near $35-36B/GW versus about $50B for peers. x.com x.com

SPCX

26 Oct, 16:30

SpaceX's Starlink and launch revenue gives its compute expansion cheaper access to debt than single-line neoclouds. Non-AI businesses provide 48% of revenue; its five-year CDS was about 233bp versus CoreWeave's 1,145bp when SpaceX raised $40B for GPUs. Anthropic's S-1 now shows up to $120.5B in SpaceX compute agreements through 2029, up from $84.5B in September; once capacity is delivered in December, payments reach about $3.1B a month. x.com x.com

SPCX

Crossroads

Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

28 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com

Late Stage Capitalism

Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience

21 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's 13-20GW 2027 plan would crash compute rates if achieved, and Nvidia cannot supply the chips. Even 10GW gross/8GW IT needs 350,000 GPUs and $30-32B monthly; 20GW costs $400-500B against $750B in global AI spend. A 28% share release tomorrow and Musk's cross-company overpayments keep SpaceX hands-off. Yet 400MW+ monthly deployment could yield $225B revenue and $100B profit in 2027, worth $2T at 20x; Elon firms rarely trade at only 20x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Space Investor

Space-Sector Investor

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's compute outlook improves as Anthropic commits more spending and institutions fund its GPU expansion. Anthropic's S-1 lists up to $120.5B in SpaceXAI compute purchases through 2029; Pimco bought $4B of the roughly $40B Apollo-led GPU debt package. The GPU lease is expected to close before year-end and entails about $40B in principal payments, not new shares. Elon Musk says Starlink Mobile will take 2-3 years to build out, versus the 4-6 years estimated by Verizon's CEO. x.com x.com x.com … Show more

Cern Basher

Co-Founder, President & CIO of Brilliant Advice

26 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's AI compute buildout has more evidence of demand from big customers. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing says it agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI compute through 2029, with payments of about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026. Either side may cancel on 90 days' notice after initial terms end in January and March 2027. x.com x.com

Stone Fox Capital

Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital

24 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's 10 GW compute target demands enormous capital spending. It alone would have to reach $500B in capex to meet the goal. x.com

Daniel

Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

20h ago

SPCX

SpaceX can capture more upside from AI compute scarcity by selling capacity near spot prices instead of locking in today's rates. Potential Anthropic and Google commitments total about $151B, with 90-day termination rights, while bare-metal pricing has risen from $10-15M to nearly $50M in annual revenue per MW. Elon Musk says contract payback could be as short as six months in 2027. x.com x.com

Larry Goldberg

Managing Partner at LumaSenti, Co-Author of The Decision Model

20 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's Q3 profitability lets it fund much more of its buildout, significantly reducing the need for outside financing. Revenue of $14.6B and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8B beat even the high cases; free cash flow was still -$10B after $19.6B of capex. SpaceX said new compute deals price a bit above $30-$50 per watt with payback under a year, though Q4 capex is guided to $35-$40B. Starlink subscribers fell just short of the low case but beat the Street, and consumer revenue grew 26%. x.com x.com … Show more

Roger

Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor

27 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's GPU lease disclosures leave the productive capacity behind its $40 billion financing unclear. The company has disclosed Vera Rubin lease terms and dollar amounts, with first deliveries expected in the first half of 2027, but not the gigawatts or GPU count; successive lease and debt announcements do not resolve how much compute will actually be delivered. x.com x.com x.com

Pejjy

Concentrated Tesla Investor

21 Oct

SPCX

SpaceXAI's projected compute-led revenue could support a $4.3 trillion valuation by end-2027. On a conservative $250 billion revenue estimate, with 80% from AI compute and a 35% operating margin, profits would reach $87.5 billion; at 50 times earnings that implies about $322 a share, roughly double in a year. This depends on projected ARR of $500 billion to $1 trillion by end-2027. x.com

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