Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Insider buying at Nokia signals the company is reaching an inflection point, and the stock could double again, much as Micron did after its insiders bought. Chief of Staff Victoria Hanrahan just bought about $700K of shares, and other insiders have bought over $3M recently, even after a 177% gain over the past year. x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia is an easy double from here, with insiders buying at record levels and the stock having a lot further to go. x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
A congressional purchase of $15,000-$50,000 in Nokia shares just three days before earnings looks unlikely to be coincidence. x.com
Nokia stands out for heavy insider buying, which signals confidence. Per @Sergeant991, a senior manager and the chief of staff are down about a third on purchases near $15.7-15.8, while the CEO is near breakeven around $10.46, and the next insider buying window opens one day after earnings. x.com
Nokia looks expensive at $10.78, trading at 19x cash earnings and 18x next year's versus the 11x its industry usually gets. A $5.93-$7.55 fair-value range means paying 43% over the top of fair. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Nokia insiders were buying at $15, which makes $10-12 a great area to add. x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia is becoming one of the biggest AI-infrastructure pivots hiding in the market, with $20 next and $25 the top target. NVIDIA invested $1B in it, AI and cloud revenue grew 49% and optical networking 20%, and it is building AI infrastructure for 5G, 6G and edge AI. Insiders are still buying after a 140% run. A move over $17 should bring $20 fast, and over $20 opens $25. x.com x.com
