Agrippa Investments
Hyper-Growth Stock Research
IREN, Nebius and CoreWeave's rental economics look stronger as B300 rental rates rise faster than hardware costs. Rates rose over 20% in the past month, per a chart shared by @matthew_sigel; across this year, rental prices climbed about 60% versus a 20-30% rise in B300 costs, even as neo-cloud stocks fell last week. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's extreme valuation, well over 100x sales with a negative 26% net margin in 2025, makes neo-cloud pure plays IREN, Nebius and CoreWeave look cheap by comparison, and its enthusiasm could spill over to them. Elon Musk is positioning SpaceX as an AI cloud provider through deals with Anthropic and Google, likely making AI its largest segment over the next year. SpaceX itself may rally first as bears capitulate, then crash at least 50% within a year as insider unlocks hit a sub-5% float. x.com x.comÂ
Rising GB300 rental prices make the 30% drop in GPU-access providers IREN, Nebius and CoreWeave hard to justify. @ViralMuzik1989 reports a 32% increase in GB300 rental prices over 30 days, from $9.42 to $12.42. x.comÂ
Rising rental rates even for older GPUs strengthen the case that IREN and CoreWeave's compute assets retain value. The quoted a16z data puts year-to-date rental gains at 160% for H200s, 120% for B200s and 35% for H100s; even six-year-old A100s rent for more than at the start of the year. x.comÂ
Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Lower leverage puts IREN and especially Nebius in a better position than highly indebted neocloud peers to withstand higher interest rates. Debt plus leases equal 1.9 times IREN's equity and 1.0 times Nebius's, versus 10.3 times for CoreWeave; the comparison also includes colocation providers. x.com x.comÂ
AI agents' productivity over human labor should lift GPU demand and rates for neoclouds. The bottom looks in for CoreWeave, Nebius, Boost Run, Sharon AI and IREN. Gavin Baker says token prices can fall as revenue per GPU rises; paraphrasing Elon, even $38 per GPU-hour can pay off. CoreWeave's five-year fixed contracts may lag current rates; Boost Run has less capacity locked in. If SpaceX takes more growth, slower cash burn could rerate neoclouds, though smaller customers may pay less. x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's heavy debt and negative free cash flow heighten the risk that neocloud contract growth will not fund expansion. It has $104.2B in backlog against $35.6B in debt and negative $5.74B quarterly free cash flow; Nebius has over $40B in contracts but $5.7B quarterly capex and customer-concentration risk. DigitalOcean's diversified cloud model reduces reliance on debt-funded GPU expansion, while TeraWulf avoids direct GPU depreciation but faces capital-intensive construction. x.comÂ
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Nebius can raise GPU rents despite cheaper tokens because lower task costs spur far more usage and compute is a small part of Anthropic's revenue. Its S-1 puts compute at ~15 cents per Claude dollar; a hypothetical 20% rent rise would cut first-half 2026 gross margin from 85% to ~82%, up from 40% in 2025. Opus 5.5 cut cost per task ~40%, yet customers spending $1 a year ago spend ~$9 now; H200 rents rose ~160% this year. Nebius raised prices 17-21% on Oct 1 and has reservations into 2028. x.comÂ
Rising debt costs squeeze Nebius's capital-intensive AI compute rental model. Elice's Korean IPO collapse highlights the risk for companies that raise money to buy chips and rent them out when money stops being cheap. Prefer operators with signed cash-rich tech customers or power they own outright; these companies are not all alike. x.comÂ
Google's use of third-party compute amid its own supply constraints creates demand for neoclouds such as IREN, Nebius and CoreWeave. Google's CFO said usage started at the end of Q3 and will ramp in Q4; Google spent $51.4 billion on capex, more than double a year ago, and expects a significant increase in 2027. IREN and Nebius stand out because their contracts carry large prepayments. The opportunity favors operators that secure power, deliver capacity on time and serve customers profitably. … Show more
