Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.com 

Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com  x.com 

Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com 

Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com 

Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com  x.com 

If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com 

Micron's valuation looks ridiculous given the street's eight-year EPS estimates, even with a projected 2028 earnings peak and subsequent decline. At under $900, it trades at 5.09 times this year's expected EPS of $176.55. If consensus plays out, 2027-34 EPS would total $921.56, more than the share price; if analysts are wrong about when EPS peaks, Micron would look even cheaper. x.com 

Micron looks very cheap because the market underestimates how sustainable its earnings will be over the next few years. x.com 

Micron is too risky to own long term because memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the AI trade. Its margins are hard to forecast, so memory, like neoclouds, deserves a low multiple until it proves it can run a sustainable business through cycles, despite immense upside. Micron belongs in the too-hard pile: worth swing trading at opportune times, not holding long term or in real size. x.com  x.com 

Micron looks quite cheap despite pulling back after an incredible earnings report, as one of only seven US companies over $10B with a forward P/E under 10 and 25%+ two-year revenue growth. Micron and Sandisk are cyclical, but each expects about 100% revenue CAGR over the next two years. They may not deserve 30-40x forward P/Es, but assigning a single-digit P/E is crazy. x.com  x.com