J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
CoreWeave is arguably the most important AI infrastructure company outside Nvidia, backed by long-term take-or-pay contracts that underpin its financing, and could be worth 2x its market cap before long. It reported $2.575B of quarterly revenue, a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin and a $104B backlog, plus over $25B of new commitments in early Q3 not yet counted. It has 1.5 GW of active and 3.7 GW of contracted power, and was first to validate Nvidia's Vera Rubin NVL72. x.comÂ
Rising GPU rental rates and Anthropic's compute margins challenge claims of collapsing demand for CoreWeave's capacity. The WSJ reported Anthropic's first-half revenue of $16.3B against $9B in compute and infrastructure spending; Bloomberg reported its Q3 compute margin above 40%. Long contracts and fully amortizing loans cushion demand declines but cap upside. Despite the challenging neocloud model, CoreWeave's risk/reward is by far the best and its quality well ahead of peers. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's financing looks more vulnerable amid a debt-market pullback for AI-data-center-dependent companies. Elon Musk says access has almost entirely shut off in recent weeks for firms without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, and expects few of the 200-plus neoclouds to survive consolidation. x.comÂ
CoreWeave benefits because demand for compute is growing faster than capacity can be brought online. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's sold-out 2027 capacity is a drawback to its compute-growth case: it will miss a year of incremental demand and cannot capture the higher pricing that demand now supports. x.comÂ
Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Improving per-MW pricing, falling cost of capital and stronger-than-expected demand from Anthropic and OpenAI make CoreWeave one of three absolute favorite stocks on a massive sale. Its short-term deals can command 3-4 times the pricing of long-term contracts. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's results show power and capacity are the binding constraint in AI cloud, with Blackwell and Vera Rubin pricing and margins setting new highs. Q2 revenue was $2.58B against $2.56B expected, adjusted EBITDA margin was 59%, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance moved to $12.4-13.2B. Backlog hit $104B, excluding more than $25B of early-Q3 commitments. Active power expanded to 1.5GW and contracted power to about 3.7GW. x.comÂ
AI data-center investment needs outside AI spending to rise 33-fold by 2030 to break even. Hyperscalers hold $4.5 trillion in debt and future liabilities, but corporate and SaaS token spending outside circular deals is only $60 billion annualized against a $2 trillion break-even ARR. SK hynix says memory shortages may last until 2031, raising capex and CoreWeave default risk; Mitsubishi warns turbines are booked through 2031 and cost 400% more, delaying CoreWeave and Oracle data centers. x.com … Show more
AI compute demand makes CoreWeave and Nebius probably not bad tactical buys. Anthropic had been slowing but accelerated in September, OpenAI is taking share, and open-source models still need compute. Credit issues remain, though worries feel near a peak and the stocks feel near a local bottom. x.comÂ