TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

Arm Holdings is expensive against its earnings, trading at 92x forward earnings versus a typical 38x for chipmakers. At 38x next year's $3.05 EPS, fair value runs roughly $102-$130, so at $281.30 buyers pay about 116% over fair value. This is a levels-only view from reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Arm's low blended royalties leave pricing and mix leverage that makes earnings look massively understated at 110x forward P/E. It collects about 7 cents per chip overall, versus $1 on compute and networking chips and $0.85-$0.90 on smartphones. An 8-cent bump to 15 cents per chip is a hypothetical $5-6 billion royalty-revenue scenario, which would be pure cash. Mix shift and price increases are coming, though royalties may not double. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Arm's valuation carries an absurd premium for the architecture layer. It trades at 91.9x EV/sales, far above its historical range, as Wall Street prices it as the mandatory royalty tollbooth for every custom AI chip. EDA leaders Cadence, at 30.1x, and Synopsys, at 21.2x, trade near the low end of their historical bands, priced like mature utilities, as the market stacks almost all the scarcity premium into Arm. x.com 

Arm remains a long-term winner over the next 10 years, but not a short-term buy after running too far, too fast. Its performance has to catch up with at least part of the move, so buying at these levels carries elevated risk if a negative surprise hits. x.com 

TSMC's AI growth still faces margin pressure from overseas fab expansion and a faster A14 ramp for mobile customers facing 2nm SoC challenges. 3Q gross margin of 66.4% missed expectations, and the 4Q guide is softer at 65-67%; margins are expected to remain largely flat through 2027-28 despite projected 39% revenue growth in 2027. Hold; target nudged to NT$2,999 at 20x 2027 earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.com 

Arm is no longer just an IP licensing story but is moving up the stack into finished silicon, and the market is finally starting to price that in. It is positioning itself as a broader compute platform for the agentic AI era, with much more value to capture if its server CPU push scales. x.com 

Arm is well positioned for the coming CPU boom, but its stock already prices in the next five to six years. It dominates AI ASIC servers, and ASICs' share of servers should grow substantially as AI workloads shift from training to inference. Yet at about 30x 2031 earnings it is optimistically valued and would need a lot of upside surprise to become attractive. x.com  x.com  x.com